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I observed the trend of marks in 2015, first time when cast was made qualifying. Lot of people were scoring around 100 marks, lot of speculation that cutoff will go down, below 100. But cutoff was 100+7* for gm.
Same crowding happened around 105 marks in 2016, based on previous experience I said 105+7*=112 could be the cutoff for 2016. Since gs paper was not that tough, I said 112 min for Gm. Now its clear my prediction was BTW GM n obc cutoff.
Now coming to 2017, unfortunately I can't see that crowding effect around a single number. But m quite sure, lot of people are scoring BTW 95 n 100. Not a single number but range, mean of which lies somewhere around 97/98.
Applying the same logic, cutoff shoyld be around 105 for gm, provided difficulty level of GS paper remains same, but this is not the case in 2017, gs was difficult than previous 3 years papers IMO.
Still I go with this prediction (105) for gm, 105(+/-1) max. Don't ask me if it goes below 100, depends on difficulty level, I am posting max possible cutoff for GM.
earlier lag rha tha ki 100-105 k beech m rahegi lekin jis tarah ladke sab questions ko doubtful bana kar link par link post karke apne answer ko prove Karna chah rhe h usse market m situation bahoot kharab lag rhi h
My Analysis. Observations and Conclusions Obs 1) No of People Scoring 115-125 in 2016=No of People Scoring 105-110 in 2017(+/-2%) Factor 2)Less Number of Seats 3)Options Very Closely formed Factor 4)Csat will impact more than 2015,2016..Most people neglected it to score 120+ in P1 alone.
Estimated Cut off factor 2 crosses out factor 4 Then104+/- 2 If Factor 2> Factor 4 Cut off 106+/-2 If Factor 4>Factor 2 Cut off 103+/-2
Anybody Scoring 100+ by vaji,vision,forum Key..get to work Because Some answers will definitely change and you could be in the Range. or you will be defeated Eventually if not in prelims. Remember Last year Rank 2's Marks were 116 By UPSC keys.
earlier lag rha tha ki 100-105 k beech m rahegi lekin jis tarah ladke sab questions ko doubtful bana kar link par link post karke apne answer ko prove Karna chah rhe h usse market m situation bahoot kharab lag rhi h
110 by any key should get u cleared.... 106 to 110 all depends on upsc key.... I think obc cut off will be just 1 mark below general
Ur thinking is not right...obc &general difference...last yera hi pt se pahle upsc secretory of national commission for sc/st/OBC SE LETTER mila tha adequate no students should qualified in pt..2014 me 22%, 2015 25% obc candidates qualified kiye the...isase pahle upsc 30-32% obc qualified karti thi...2016 se wapas ye trend kar liya...that's why there will be difference in obc and general...due to low cut off difference may be low..but it would be atleast 3 or 4 marks
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Comments
Lot of people were scoring around 100 marks, lot of speculation that cutoff will go down, below 100.
But cutoff was 100+7* for gm.
Same crowding happened around 105 marks in 2016, based on previous experience I said 105+7*=112 could be the cutoff for 2016. Since gs paper was not that tough, I said 112 min for Gm. Now its clear my prediction was BTW GM n obc cutoff.
Now coming to 2017, unfortunately I can't see that crowding effect around a single number. But m quite sure, lot of people are scoring BTW 95 n 100. Not a single number but range, mean of which lies somewhere around 97/98.
Applying the same logic, cutoff shoyld be around 105 for gm, provided difficulty level of GS paper remains same, but this is not the case in 2017, gs was difficult than previous 3 years papers IMO.
Still I go with this prediction (105) for gm, 105(+/-1) max.
Don't ask me if it goes below 100, depends on difficulty level, I am posting max possible cutoff for GM.
General 107
Obc. 103
Sc. 96
St. 94
earlier lag rha tha ki 100-105 k beech m rahegi lekin jis tarah ladke sab questions ko doubtful bana kar link par link post karke apne answer ko prove Karna chah rhe h usse market m situation bahoot kharab lag rhi h
Observations and Conclusions
Obs 1) No of People Scoring 115-125 in 2016=No of People Scoring 105-110 in 2017(+/-2%)
Factor 2)Less Number of Seats
3)Options Very Closely formed
Factor 4)Csat will impact more than 2015,2016..Most people neglected it to score 120+ in P1 alone.
Estimated Cut off factor 2 crosses out factor 4 Then104+/- 2
If Factor 2> Factor 4 Cut off 106+/-2
If Factor 4>Factor 2 Cut off 103+/-2
Anybody Scoring 100+ by vaji,vision,forum Key..get to work Because Some answers will definitely change and you could be in the Range. or you will be defeated Eventually if not in prelims.
Remember Last year Rank 2's Marks were 116 By UPSC keys.
106 to 110 all depends on upsc key....
I think obc cut off will be just 1 mark below general