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According to me, based on poll analysis experiences( during Orkut day polls ), I have seen cutoff sticking to top 30-33% from the people who have polled.
According to broader survey results ( 1000 votes ) above 110, there are roughly 29% people.. So 108 or 109 I believe could be the cutoff.
However, there are 3-4 doubtful questions which could significantly alter this.. Hence 105+ should be safe according to me.
This is just my analysis. If you people can analyse this in a better way, please enlighten me.
Thank you
Kyun jhoot bol rha hai bhai, I remember seeing orkut polls for 2013 and 2014 and roughly 55 to 58 % people qualified, according to forumias poll last year more than 50% people qualified, according to clearias poll last year around 45-50% people qualified.
+1 i also saw orkut poll of last year ,it was 58-59 % .
Yeh india bhai ki marketing kar re hain... To make him the brand ambassador of upsc cut offs
According to me, based on poll analysis experiences( during Orkut day polls ), I have seen cutoff sticking to top 30-33% from the people who have polled.
According to broader survey results ( 1000 votes ) above 110, there are roughly 29% people.. So 108 or 109 I believe could be the cutoff.
However, there are 3-4 doubtful questions which could significantly alter this.. Hence 105+ should be safe according to me.
This is just my analysis. If you people can analyse this in a better way, please enlighten me.
90% junta get less marks than they calculate as per upsc key. Only 10% junta get higher marks than they calculte by verious keys.... -believe me many were saying they had good scores like 58+ now they are saying bhai kisi tarah cutoff 49 la do... - 102 +/- 2 would be the cut off.
2014: Unreserved category Cutoff - 206; Candidates qualified for Mains:~8000.
Simple Distribution of candidates to marks for 2014:
Level -- Difference -- Multiplier -- Mark Range -- Assumed candidates -- Per mark Of Marks. in the range cand. 1. 2 - 206 - 208 1350. 675 2. 2.5. 2×1.25 208 - 210.5 1300. 520 3. 3.5. 2.5×1.4 210.5 - 214 1250. 357 4. 5.5. 3.5x1.6. 214 - 219.5. 1175. 214 5. 10. 5.5×1.8. 219.5-229.5 1100. 110 6. 20. 10×2. 229.5-249.5. 1000. 50 7. 50. 20×2.5. 249.5 - 299.5. 825. 13
I have made a random distribution based on some understanding from ClearIas' poll for 2014. You may refute the above because there is no comprehensive logic but just basic logic based on the understanding that when you move up the ladder of marks, the number of candidates per mark reduce linearly initially and exponentially later on. And the second fact that more candidates will hinge around the cutoff. For instance, in the distribution above 3900/8000 candidates are distributed in the range 206-214(Just 8 marks). [Hold the above for a while, will come back to this.]
**I am considering that the logic for distribution of candidates for the 'difference of marks' mentioned above would vary little from year to year. After all the number of candidates qualifying for mains in the past few years has been about 7000-8000 for UR category.
But what may be GS cutoff this year?
1) Scores of about 80-90 in paper 1 and 120-130 in paper 2 have been sufficient in the years 2011, 2012 & 2014. [2013 was an exception. Both papers, for me, were easier than this year and previous years. Especially, paper 2. So not considering that. And also keeping aside scores like 60 in paper 1 and 150+ in paper 2.]
2) Taking 85 as the mean in the range 80-90, consider the following two reasons that could raise the cut off and the possible marks by which it could raise:
a) I would add 4 marks(net 2 qns) because of the number of easy factual questions asked this year. The paper has terrifically high scores posted here of a good number of aspirants but this paper has also humbled the marks of decent number of aspirants, especially of the so-called ”experienced aspirants”, who are a very good number. Based on the popular expectation, cutoff may see a rise of 4 marks and so from 85 it may raise to 89. However, I find the argument, that cutoff will raise by at least 10 marks from previous years, completely absurd. Would have beens possible if the paper was a sitter, which it was not!
So if you consider the table I have set above, level 1 would point to a range of 89-91 and an assumed 1350 candidates would fall under it.
b) However, the number of aspirants qualifying for mains is likely to come down by 1000. So add 2 marks more to the above identified 89 to arrive at a possible cutoff of 91. (The level 1 in the table has a 'difference of marks' of 2 with 1350 candidates.
So my guess is that cutoff must hover around 91. And for the cry of a few who say no that's too conservative, nothing beyond 93.
When I visit this forum once in a few days and reads posts with people threatening others, mostly indirectly, through speculation about cutoff crossing 100, I ask myself if these people have actually given a serious thought to what they have said ? Or are they secretly gloating about the high scores they may have got this year or what?? I have not read one decent reasoned justification for arriving at such scores.
Why would I spend time arriving at the above?
Because I have faced the brunt of these speculations on an occasion before. I know how it plays on the mind and ruins prep till the prelims-result day. (I agree it was some weakness of the mind that I fell prey to the speculations.) And how after you have cleared pre you only end up frustrating yourself or only hurry up to cover the syllabus superficially. I find it difficult not to empathise with some serious aspirants, when these few irresponsible speculators ruin the prep.
Anyways. I hope at least some of you wake up. Even if my analysis is a failed one or is defeated when the result is out I think its so much about how you grow in your mind. This exam has the capacity to transform your mind, I can assure you that, you only have to rise above such ocassions. Don't wait for the result to be out. Get on with your prep if you want to eventually arrive to your destination.
Paper was definitely much easier as there were around 10-14(20-28 marks) very easy questions. Although max no. of candidates have done mistake here as well...assume just 2 wrong in these on average...i.e. 14.66-22.66 marks
Lets remove these question and thus there were around 86-90 questions more with almost similar level of difficulty like in 2013.
Considering cutoff as 45% for GS in 2013...therefore for these 86-90(i.e. 172-180 marks)questions cutoff would be 45% of (172-180) - 77.5 -81 marks
Adding above..cutoff should be in the range of ( 81+14.66 - 77.5+22.66) === 95-98
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Comments
If it's wrong, then I accept my analysis is wrong
-believe me many were saying they had good scores like 58+ now they are saying bhai kisi tarah cutoff 49 la do...
- 102 +/- 2 would be the cut off.
Simple Distribution of candidates to marks for 2014:
Level -- Difference -- Multiplier -- Mark Range -- Assumed candidates -- Per mark
Of Marks. in the range cand.
1. 2 - 206 - 208 1350. 675
2. 2.5. 2×1.25 208 - 210.5 1300. 520
3. 3.5. 2.5×1.4 210.5 - 214 1250. 357
4. 5.5. 3.5x1.6. 214 - 219.5. 1175. 214
5. 10. 5.5×1.8. 219.5-229.5 1100. 110
6. 20. 10×2. 229.5-249.5. 1000. 50
7. 50. 20×2.5. 249.5 - 299.5. 825. 13
I have made a random distribution based on some understanding from ClearIas' poll for 2014. You may refute the above because there is no comprehensive logic but just basic logic based on the understanding that when you move up the ladder of marks, the number of candidates per mark reduce linearly initially and exponentially later on. And the second fact that more candidates will hinge around the cutoff. For instance, in the distribution above 3900/8000 candidates are distributed in the range 206-214(Just 8 marks). [Hold the above for a while, will come back to this.]
**I am considering that the logic for distribution of candidates for the 'difference of marks' mentioned above would vary little from year to year. After all the number of candidates qualifying for mains in the past few years has been about 7000-8000 for UR category.
But what may be GS cutoff this year?
1) Scores of about 80-90 in paper 1 and 120-130 in paper 2 have been sufficient in the years 2011, 2012 & 2014. [2013 was an exception. Both papers, for me, were easier than this year and previous years. Especially, paper 2. So not considering that. And also keeping aside scores like 60 in paper 1 and 150+ in paper 2.]
2) Taking 85 as the mean in the range 80-90, consider the following two reasons that could raise the cut off and the possible marks by which it could raise:
a) I would add 4 marks(net 2 qns) because of the number of easy factual questions asked this year. The paper has terrifically high scores posted here of a good number of aspirants but this paper has also humbled the marks of decent number of aspirants, especially of the so-called ”experienced aspirants”, who are a very good number. Based on the popular expectation, cutoff may see a rise of 4 marks and so from 85 it may raise to 89. However, I find the argument, that cutoff will raise by at least 10 marks from previous years, completely absurd. Would have beens possible if the paper was a sitter, which it was not!
So if you consider the table I have set above, level 1 would point to a range of 89-91 and an assumed 1350 candidates would fall under it.
b) However, the number of aspirants qualifying for mains is likely to come down by 1000. So add 2 marks more to the above identified 89 to arrive at a possible cutoff of 91. (The level 1 in the table has a 'difference of marks' of 2 with 1350 candidates.
So my guess is that cutoff must hover around 91. And for the cry of a few who say no that's too conservative, nothing beyond 93.
When I visit this forum once in a few days and reads posts with people threatening others, mostly indirectly, through speculation about cutoff crossing 100, I ask myself if these people have actually given a serious thought to what they have said ? Or are they secretly gloating about the high scores they may have got this year or what?? I have not read one decent reasoned justification for arriving at such scores.
Why would I spend time arriving at the above?
Because I have faced the brunt of these speculations on an occasion before. I know how it plays on the mind and ruins prep till the prelims-result day. (I agree it was some weakness of the mind that I fell prey to the speculations.) And how after you have cleared pre you only end up frustrating yourself or only hurry up to cover the syllabus superficially. I find it difficult not to empathise with some serious aspirants, when these few irresponsible speculators ruin the prep.
Anyways. I hope at least some of you wake up. Even if my analysis is a failed one or is defeated when the result is out I think its so much about how you grow in your mind. This exam has the capacity to transform your mind, I can assure you that, you only have to rise above such ocassions. Don't wait for the result to be out. Get on with your prep if you want to eventually arrive to your destination.
All the best.
OBC cutoff god knows....i think it should be less than 5 marks
Although max no. of candidates have done mistake here as well...assume just 2 wrong in these on average...i.e. 14.66-22.66 marks
Lets remove these question and thus there were around 86-90 questions more with almost similar level of difficulty like in 2013.
Considering cutoff as 45% for GS in 2013...therefore for these 86-90(i.e. 172-180 marks)questions cutoff would be 45% of (172-180) - 77.5 -81 marks
Adding above..cutoff should be in the range of ( 81+14.66 - 77.5+22.66) === 95-98
What say guys ???