Dear Friends!
I hope you all are preparing in full swing for mains. However many people are skeptical about the cutoff and they are continuously messaging me about my take on cutoff at this point of time. This is a mere prediction of cutoff based on the past trends (CSE pre cutoff 107) and present situation, I may go wrong also. But I will provide the logical reasons for my prediction of cutoff this time. I have taken the bench mark of cutoff of CSE2015, i.e. 107 for predicting this year’s cutoff.
The cutoff can be 105(+/-1). I had arrived on this because of following reasons:
1. The paper was little tricky and unconventional type. There are two sets of marks of candidates. One who studied Current Affairs are 110+ and other who had not and they are scoring 100-. Moreover there are many people who are working and writing mains year on year but this year scoring below 100 because they rely on traditional topics for prelims.
2. Many around 800-1000 are failing in CSAT who are scoring 105+ because of the tough CSAT and candidate’s casual approach towards CSAT. This will reduce the cutoff further by 2-3 marks.
3. There are no extra attempts people (2011 got attempts in 2015) which may reduce the cutoff by 1-2 marks.
4. Since last two years (CSE 2014 & CSE2015), UPSC is not giving any reservation to OBC in prelims stage (like UPPSC & RAS). It is considering the OBC candidate as OBC only even if he scores marks in General merit .UPSC has qualified only 22.8% in CSE2014 and CSE2015 as against 31% previously. This had led to difference of just 1 mark in both CSE2014 &CSE2015, whereas previously it was around 15-20 marks. This has led to fall in General cutoff, which will again help in reducing the cutoff overall. (Source: UPSC 65th Annual Report, Appendix-6&7, Page 68 & 69 of the pdf)
5. Due to some sources, I came to know that there are more seats (150-200) added to this year, which will again help in reducing the cutoff by 1-2 marks
So friends, 105 (approx.) is my prediction on cutoff as of now. But candidates above 100 should start preparing for mains and should not wait for results as there are variation in keys and cutoff of UPSC. Actual cutoff speculation can be done after September 20th only.
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Kudos @india bhai