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Three biggest emitter : China(29% of gloabal),US(15%),EU(11%). India is a distant 4th.
Look into US-China deal: Though they promise to cut certain amount, there is no roadmap as to how. It's a bilateral and voluntary and so no penalty for failue. US here agreed 26-28% reduction (in comparision to 2005, by 2025) is less than 30% which was promised in Copanhegan Accord. (read?) It allows china unlimited expansion and emission till 2030.
UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) says a 2degrees pathway in preventing catastrophic climatic effects which requires 40-70% reduction in level of GH gases as compared with 2010, by 2050 and to ZERO or below by 2100. Thus, the pledges by 3 largest emitters is not suffcient and should be increased to keep the average temp rise within ambit of 2degrees.
Pressure on India likely (thanks to China and regional geopolitic):
India has already commited itself to 20-25% less C-emission by 2020(base 2005) Russia, Japan Canada have done less than what they promised in Kyoto Protocol. India is in it's early stage of development and there is a long time before its emission can stabilise.
What do stats say?
India's emission is < 1/4th of China <1/3rd of US <1/2 of EU ~ Russia slightly > Japan
India's per capita emission = 1/10th of US =1/6th of EU = 1/4th of China = 1/7th of Russia
India's strategy should be: Increase share of renewabls in its primary energy mix (?), can be shown as contribution. It is in india's interest to rely on renewable and green energy as fossils are fast depleting and we need to upgrade ourselves with new technology that do not or might not work on fossils which will soon be outdated and most likely get costlier as they deplete. India is in it's early stage of development and there is a long time before its emission can stabilise so can't promise annual targets as others have done. India has young population (unlike china) which will grow atleast till 2050 and so india may propose "peak" by 2050. May propose to increase its target from 20-25% to 25-30% by 2025. (base 2005) Share of renewable resources to 20% by 2030. This is achievable as per Planning Comm's report which said contribution from solar, wind, hydel can be easily incresed from +nt 6% to 18% by 2030. India could boost up it's solar energy production leveraging it's tropical position. Increase pressure on US,EU and China to increase their targets. Principle of Polluter Pay and historical responsibility has been diluted and double burden on developing countries- reducing pollution AND raising fund to pay for climate actions as there is inadequate financial help from developed countries.
CONTRARY TAKE
Why India needs to take lead in the LIMA or Climate change?
India is a warm subtropical country where agriculture and drinking water depend on monsoon. Northern India depends on river systems sustained by melting Himalayan glaciers. Long coastline. Regularly exposed to extreme weather events — floods, droughts and hurricanes. Global warming leads to changes in weather patterns that could make the monsoons more erratic and extreme weather events more likely. glaciers melting more rapidly, there will be more floods followed by water scarcity. Rising sea levels will threaten our coastal cities and low-lying villages. Higher temperatures could reduce yields of some major crops while bringing in tropical diseases that have not been endemic in the country so far. Rising emissions, especially in urban areas, have worsened pollution and made the air in many Indian cities unhealthy. Regarding financial aid and technology from developed countries to mitigate and adaptation, it will 1st go to African and other Least Developed Countries and Small Island States. Budget is constrained in developed world and India can’t expect to get much aid. Only significant climate-related financing India has received is through the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM). But this will only work in future if there is a strong new climate agreement. o/w the carbon market will collapse and our significant CDM financing will dry up.
(I had written (read:compiled) it some time back and it's convenient to update it every now and then. So just thought of sharing. LIMA was a weak agreement. I have a note on that too, but fearing that you guys might declare me a spam so i have refrained from posting it. :P )
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hope the next venue is in paris/switzerland/london/new york etc. :P
Look into US-China deal:
Though they promise to cut certain amount, there is no roadmap as to how.
It's a bilateral and voluntary and so no penalty for failue.
US here agreed 26-28% reduction (in comparision to 2005, by 2025) is less than 30% which was promised in Copanhegan Accord. (read?)
It allows china unlimited expansion and emission till 2030.
UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) says a 2degrees pathway in preventing catastrophic climatic effects which requires 40-70% reduction in level of GH gases as compared with 2010, by 2050 and to ZERO or below by 2100.
Thus, the pledges by 3 largest emitters is not suffcient and should be increased to keep the average temp rise within ambit of 2degrees.
Pressure on India likely (thanks to China and regional geopolitic):
India has already commited itself to 20-25% less C-emission by 2020(base 2005)
Russia, Japan Canada have done less than what they promised in Kyoto Protocol.
India is in it's early stage of development and there is a long time before its emission can stabilise.
What do stats say?
India's emission is
< 1/4th of China
<1/3rd of US
<1/2 of EU
~ Russia
slightly > Japan
India's per capita emission = 1/10th of US =1/6th of EU = 1/4th of China = 1/7th of Russia
India's strategy should be:
Increase share of renewabls in its primary energy mix (?), can be shown as contribution.
It is in india's interest to rely on renewable and green energy as fossils are fast depleting and we need to upgrade ourselves with new technology that do not or might not work on fossils which will soon be outdated and most likely get costlier as they deplete.
India is in it's early stage of development and there is a long time before its emission can stabilise so can't promise annual targets as others have done.
India has young population (unlike china) which will grow atleast till 2050 and so india may propose "peak" by 2050.
May propose to increase its target from 20-25% to 25-30% by 2025. (base 2005)
Share of renewable resources to 20% by 2030. This is achievable as per Planning Comm's report which said contribution from solar, wind, hydel can be easily incresed from +nt 6% to 18% by 2030.
India could boost up it's solar energy production leveraging it's tropical position.
Increase pressure on US,EU and China to increase their targets.
Principle of Polluter Pay and historical responsibility has been diluted and double burden on developing countries- reducing pollution AND raising fund to pay for climate actions as there is inadequate financial help from developed countries.
CONTRARY TAKE
Why India needs to take lead in the LIMA or Climate change?
India is a warm subtropical country where agriculture and drinking water depend on monsoon.
Northern India depends on river systems sustained by melting Himalayan glaciers.
Long coastline. Regularly exposed to extreme weather events — floods, droughts and hurricanes.
Global warming leads to
changes in weather patterns that could make the monsoons more erratic and extreme weather events more likely.
glaciers melting more rapidly, there will be more floods followed by water scarcity.
Rising sea levels will threaten our coastal cities and low-lying villages.
Higher temperatures could reduce yields of some major crops while bringing in tropical diseases that have not been endemic in the country so far.
Rising emissions, especially in urban areas, have worsened pollution and made the air in many Indian cities unhealthy.
Regarding financial aid and technology from developed countries to mitigate and adaptation, it will 1st go to African and other Least Developed Countries and Small Island States. Budget is constrained in developed world and India can’t expect to get much aid.
Only significant climate-related financing India has received is through the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM). But this will only work in future if there is a strong new climate agreement. o/w the carbon market will collapse and our significant CDM financing will dry up.
(I had written (read:compiled) it some time back and it's convenient to update it every now and then. So just thought of sharing. LIMA was a weak agreement. I have a note on that too, but fearing that you guys might declare me a spam so i have refrained from posting it. :P )