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1. Intake is [4000,4500] (number of seats are ~300 and ratio of calling for mains is 1:13). In 2018 ACF/RFO exam intake was 2245 and I think total number of people who would have cleared the ACF/RFO cutoff would not be greater than 2 times (This point can have some error because its pure assumption). So I am going to do my analysis based on ACF/RFO 2018 cutoff.
2. ACF/RFO 2018 cutoff was 136/200 and there were 4 deleted questions in final answer key provided by UPPSC. So the equivalent cut off in terms of number of questions is = 136*200/146=99.28.
3. There were 6 questions in the final answer key which had 2 options and 4 questions got cancelled too. Multiple answer question increases the cut off and cancellation of question decreases. 6 multiple answer questions and 4 deleted questions would have finally increased the cut off. I am reducing ~1.3 questions cut off for this thing (Playing conservative otherwise I would have reduced 2 points). So now the variable cut off is ~98.
4. 2019 Prelims paper was tougher than 2018 paper. I think that will reduce cut off further to 3 points. Obviously you can opt for reducing 4-5 points but I am trying to find maximum cut off. Yes, there is much drop (up to 8-10 questions) in high end performances (who scored 105-110+ last year) but not that much in 85-95 range janta (average drop is 3-4 questions only) . Now the variable cut off is ~95.
5. Whenever papers comes tough, the bell curve of marks of candidates differ from when paper comes relatively easier. The difference between average performer and good performer reduces. The same will happen this year as paper is on tougher side as compare to previous year. So, I am going to reduce 1 point for that factor. This factor can easily go up to 2 points but again playing conservative. Now the variable cut off is ~94.
6. Here comes another factor. The so called UPSC folks who encroached the territory of UPPSC. I think this will clearly have some effect on cut off because there are much more UPSC guys this year as compare to previous year. I am going for +2 for this particular factor. But yes, if we are considering this factor then we must admit that conventional PCS janta got relatively lower marks than the conventional UPSC janta. So final increment in my opinion is 1 point. Now the variable cut off is ~95.
7. So 95 is the maximum that cut off can reach. I assumed everything very conservatively and I think the cut off will surely fall below it, most probably in [92,93] range (considering intake to be in [4k,4.5k] range. It might go down further according to your analysis. Obviously my assumption in point 1 can go wrong. I assumed factor of total potential candidates/selected in ACF/RFO is 2, it easily can lie somewhere between range [1.3,2] because only few don't opt for forest exam if they have engineering/science degree and in these days almost 70-80% participatory/selected janta in any exam is from engineers/science category only. Moreover high end performers tend to have more percentage of engineers/science background students.
8. If in revised key, UPPSC provides multiple answer to some questions or cancels few questions, the cut off will shift accordingly.
9. If you think this analysis is rational then you can share it in telegram/whatsapp or other groups/places so that 94-95+ janta can easily focus on mains having no doubt in their minds and 91-92+ janta can have strong hope for making to the next stage.
P.S. I have mathematics as my optional subject.
300 post pe bilkul exact speculations.most probably yahi rahega bt seats badhne ko.news aa ri
aur ham karen yhi to logic, induction, deduction, judgement, lehsun, pyaaz, adrak
1. Intake is [4000,4500] (number of seats are ~300 and ratio of calling for mains is 1:13). In 2018 ACF/RFO exam intake was 2245 and I think total number of people who would have cleared the ACF/RFO cutoff would not be greater than 2 times (This point can have some error because its pure assumption). So I am going to do my analysis based on ACF/RFO 2018 cutoff.
2. ACF/RFO 2018 cutoff was 136/200 and there were 4 deleted questions in final answer key provided by UPPSC. So the equivalent cut off in terms of number of questions is = 136*200/146=99.28.
3. There were 6 questions in the final answer key which had 2 options and 4 questions got cancelled too. Multiple answer question increases the cut off and cancellation of question decreases. 6 multiple answer questions and 4 deleted questions would have finally increased the cut off. I am reducing ~1.3 questions cut off for this thing (Playing conservative otherwise I would have reduced 2 points). So now the variable cut off is ~98.
4. 2019 Prelims paper was tougher than 2018 paper. I think that will reduce cut off further to 3 points. Obviously you can opt for reducing 4-5 points but I am trying to find maximum cut off. Yes, there is much drop (up to 8-10 questions) in high end performances (who scored 105-110+ last year) but not that much in 85-95 range janta (average drop is 3-4 questions only) . Now the variable cut off is ~95.
5. Whenever papers comes tough, the bell curve of marks of candidates differ from when paper comes relatively easier. The difference between average performer and good performer reduces. The same will happen this year as paper is on tougher side as compare to previous year. So, I am going to reduce 1 point for that factor. This factor can easily go up to 2 points but again playing conservative. Now the variable cut off is ~94.
6. Here comes another factor. The so called UPSC folks who encroached the territory of UPPSC. I think this will clearly have some effect on cut off because there are much more UPSC guys this year as compare to previous year. I am going for +2 for this particular factor. But yes, if we are considering this factor then we must admit that conventional PCS janta got relatively lower marks than the conventional UPSC janta. So final increment in my opinion is 1 point. Now the variable cut off is ~95.
7. So 95 is the maximum that cut off can reach. I assumed everything very conservatively and I think the cut off will surely fall below it, most probably in [92,93] range (considering intake to be in [4k,4.5k] range. It might go down further according to your analysis. Obviously my assumption in point 1 can go wrong. I assumed factor of total potential candidates/selected in ACF/RFO is 2, it easily can lie somewhere between range [1.3,2] because only few don't opt for forest exam if they have engineering/science degree and in these days almost 70-80% participatory/selected janta in any exam is from engineers/science category only. Moreover high end performers tend to have more percentage of engineers/science background students.
8. If in revised key, UPPSC provides multiple answer to some questions or cancels few questions, the cut off will shift accordingly.
9. If you think this analysis is rational then you can share it in telegram/whatsapp or other groups/places so that 94-95+ janta can easily focus on mains having no doubt in their minds and 91-92+ janta can have strong hope for making to the next stage.
P.S. I have mathematics as my optional subject.
300 post pe bilkul exact speculations.most probably yahi rahega bt seats badhne ko.news aa ri
aur ham karen yhi to logic, induction, deduction, judgement, lehsun, pyaaz, adrak
Aap yaar judgemental hote ho bas aapka yahi ek.problem hai..maine is tippadi me na to kisi ko ye likha ki 105-110 wale fenku hai na to ye likha 75 wale acche se ni padhte .na hi bhai se mera opinion match ni khata to ye bolta ki lagta h aapne ye ni kiya wo ni diya .. difference samjh lijiye bas .. baki baat aapki bhi sahi hi rehti
Prelims me horizontal reservation ni dete hain..agar jada logo ko bheed ho gayi ews certificate me to backfire bhi kar sakta ews ki cutoff UR se jada bhi jaa sakti unhe 10 perc me.hi consider karenge ... Horizontal sirf final selection me hota yaha pcs me...
Sugar industry and Maharashtra wala...why the answer is not A...ppz explain
Yes answer should be A.. they asked for production and not productivity... So, cooperative played a greater role in good production While season and longer crushing period is impacted by climate
It should be claimed
Sugar production main Maharashtra is on top UP bas sugarcane production main hai upar Usmain answer C hona chahiye first statement is false
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Comments
Uske liye toh report ya koi news article he quote kr sakte hain .....
Koi authentic textbook toh quote nahi kr paenge.
UP bas sugarcane production main hai upar
Usmain answer C hona chahiye first statement is false