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Let's Guess the Cutoff with some reason!

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Comments

  • People who have appeared in interview multiple times are predicting lower cutoffs while those who have missed out in pre on a few occasions in the past are predicting higher cutoffs. Few possible reasons for this :-

    1. Its a sort of confirmation bias, those who have failed in pre before have a pre conceived notion that clearing prelims is not an easy task and if the cutoffs are 90 or less then toh sabka ho jayega! If this sort of person is getting 100+, he/she might think that the cutoff will lie very close to their own marks as they have struggled to clear the cutoff in the past.
    2. Those who have been clearing every time, unfortunately, suffer from the same bias. They think,arey agar hamara nahi hoga toh hoga kiska! Such people think that they are entitled to clear prelims by at least 6-8 marks every time.
    3. The first type of people generally have the tendency of telling their best case scenario marks while the latter type usually tell their worst case scenario. ( Of course, there are exceptions here.)

    Unfortunately, all of us belong to one type or the other . So none of our opinions can be absolutely objective. For this, we need to get out of the reference frame (our own track record) and assess the nature of questions asked, the closeness of the different options, the length of the question paper, no. of candidates appearing in the exam, no. of seats etc etc.

    Is there anyone who can claim to put in this much amount of objectivity in his/her assessment of the paper? That person’s prediction, will be the closest to actual cutoff.

    I will try to be objective, but of course I may be wrong. I analysed every question that I marked wrong. Air India chronology, fssai dghs, rajasthan’s ore mines and the list goes on. I found that they aren’t easy questions! No additional amount of preparation or solving of mocks would have made me ready to answer them correctly. The only way I could have got them right was through a lucky guess. Seriously, before this paper, how many of us had heard of GACSA? Yet, people debate over its answer as if their logic behind choosing their answer was better than the next person’s logic!

    Can’t we just agree that these were damn tough questions with confusing options that weren’t getting solved by eliminating one statement and so the probability of getting them right is very less? Can’t we just come to the conclusion that there were at least 10 such questions in the paper? An increased difficulty level of mere 5 questions compared to last year’s paper will lower the cutoff by 13.xx marks. I am not saying that this will happen for sure, but there is a very high probability of it happening. This consensus itself will bring out the fact that cutoff may see a big decline and will lend every restless soul some much sought after comfort.

    Funnily enough, this situation seems sort of like a “collective prisoners dilemma” , where, either we can all agree that the paper was indeed tough and cutoffs will decline by a good margin and thus, will be mentally at peace till the results come out, or we can try to one up each other by assuming the best case scenario marks for ourselves without caring about the common predicament for the rest of the prisoners. I need not tell you what happens in the second scenario!

    can't agree more bhai! i will be very honest. this was with my best preparation. i did it all from test papers to tikdams to elimination fundae, i mean everything and yet in the exam i was horrified. i look at the paper even now and i don't think i would've bettered my score by more than 5 marks! elimination wasn't working at all. it was all fact and it looked like random 100 questions from some source. how can one prepare something to which even Google is failing. I know it's an uncertain business and anything and everything is possible but i genuinely doubt 6000 people all over india would be getting more than 90-92 marks in this paper after seeing the people at ORN and MN!
    @focus bhai aapka kya prediction hai?
    bhai ab kuchh bolne mein bhi darr lagta. sab tukkebaazi potential se decide ho raha ab. but i feel 90-93 maximum. the main issue is of mains intake. agar last year se bahut kam nahi hua, I mean 11-12K tak bhi to it may be 87-88-89 too!
    Ha bhai par sabka yahi haal hai.
    I know atleast 10 people jo last year 125+ the 2018 pe sab 90-95 pe aagae..i strongly feel ki cutoff 87.xx hoga for general.
    Aap start krdo bhai padhai ,bhagvaan pe bharosa kro nikal jaega inshallah
  • People who have appeared in interview multiple times are predicting lower cutoffs while those who have missed out in pre on a few occasions in the past are predicting higher cutoffs. Few possible reasons for this :-

    1. Its a sort of confirmation bias, those who have failed in pre before have a pre conceived notion that clearing prelims is not an easy task and if the cutoffs are 90 or less then toh sabka ho jayega! If this sort of person is getting 100+, he/she might think that the cutoff will lie very close to their own marks as they have struggled to clear the cutoff in the past.
    2. Those who have been clearing every time, unfortunately, suffer from the same bias. They think,arey agar hamara nahi hoga toh hoga kiska! Such people think that they are entitled to clear prelims by at least 6-8 marks every time.
    3. The first type of people generally have the tendency of telling their best case scenario marks while the latter type usually tell their worst case scenario. ( Of course, there are exceptions here.)

    Unfortunately, all of us belong to one type or the other . So none of our opinions can be absolutely objective. For this, we need to get out of the reference frame (our own track record) and assess the nature of questions asked, the closeness of the different options, the length of the question paper, no. of candidates appearing in the exam, no. of seats etc etc.

    Is there anyone who can claim to put in this much amount of objectivity in his/her assessment of the paper? That person’s prediction, will be the closest to actual cutoff.

    I will try to be objective, but of course I may be wrong. I analysed every question that I marked wrong. Air India chronology, fssai dghs, rajasthan’s ore mines and the list goes on. I found that they aren’t easy questions! No additional amount of preparation or solving of mocks would have made me ready to answer them correctly. The only way I could have got them right was through a lucky guess. Seriously, before this paper, how many of us had heard of GACSA? Yet, people debate over its answer as if their logic behind choosing their answer was better than the next person’s logic!

    Can’t we just agree that these were damn tough questions with confusing options that weren’t getting solved by eliminating one statement and so the probability of getting them right is very less? Can’t we just come to the conclusion that there were at least 10 such questions in the paper? An increased difficulty level of mere 5 questions compared to last year’s paper will lower the cutoff by 13.xx marks. I am not saying that this will happen for sure, but there is a very high probability of it happening. This consensus itself will bring out the fact that cutoff may see a big decline and will lend every restless soul some much sought after comfort.

    Funnily enough, this situation seems sort of like a “collective prisoners dilemma” , where, either we can all agree that the paper was indeed tough and cutoffs will decline by a good margin and thus, will be mentally at peace till the results come out, or we can try to one up each other by assuming the best case scenario marks for ourselves without caring about the common predicament for the rest of the prisoners. I need not tell you what happens in the second scenario!

    can't agree more bhai! i will be very honest. this was with my best preparation. i did it all from test papers to tikdams to elimination fundae, i mean everything and yet in the exam i was horrified. i look at the paper even now and i don't think i would've bettered my score by more than 5 marks! elimination wasn't working at all. it was all fact and it looked like random 100 questions from some source. how can one prepare something to which even Google is failing. I know it's an uncertain business and anything and everything is possible but i genuinely doubt 6000 people all over india would be getting more than 90-92 marks in this paper after seeing the people at ORN and MN!
    @focus bhai aapka kya prediction hai?
    bhai ab kuchh bolne mein bhi darr lagta. sab tukkebaazi potential se decide ho raha ab. but i feel 90-93 maximum. the main issue is of mains intake. agar last year se bahut kam nahi hua, I mean 11-12K tak bhi to it may be 87-88-89 too!
    Ha bhai par sabka yahi haal hai.
    I know atleast 10 people jo last year 125+ the 2018 pe sab 90-95 pe aagae..i strongly feel ki cutoff 87.xx hoga for general.
    Aap start krdo bhai padhai ,bhagvaan pe bharosa kro nikal jaega inshallah
    haan yaar lekin rah rah kar dhyan idhar aa jata aur log in karna padta. UPSC prelims ko bhi inhone uncertain bana diya!! upar wale se dua karo bhai ki jo deserving hai use khaali haath na jaana pade. UPSC ke chakkar mein ab to Karma ke concept par bhi doubt hone lagta kabhi kabhi...
  • People who have appeared in interview multiple times are predicting lower cutoffs while those who have missed out in pre on a few occasions in the past are predicting higher cutoffs. Few possible reasons for this :-

    1. Its a sort of confirmation bias, those who have failed in pre before have a pre conceived notion that clearing prelims is not an easy task and if the cutoffs are 90 or less then toh sabka ho jayega! If this sort of person is getting 100+, he/she might think that the cutoff will lie very close to their own marks as they have struggled to clear the cutoff in the past.
    2. Those who have been clearing every time, unfortunately, suffer from the same bias. They think,arey agar hamara nahi hoga toh hoga kiska! Such people think that they are entitled to clear prelims by at least 6-8 marks every time.
    3. The first type of people generally have the tendency of telling their best case scenario marks while the latter type usually tell their worst case scenario. ( Of course, there are exceptions here.)

    Unfortunately, all of us belong to one type or the other . So none of our opinions can be absolutely objective. For this, we need to get out of the reference frame (our own track record) and assess the nature of questions asked, the closeness of the different options, the length of the question paper, no. of candidates appearing in the exam, no. of seats etc etc.

    Is there anyone who can claim to put in this much amount of objectivity in his/her assessment of the paper? That person’s prediction, will be the closest to actual cutoff.

    I will try to be objective, but of course I may be wrong. I analysed every question that I marked wrong. Air India chronology, fssai dghs, rajasthan’s ore mines and the list goes on. I found that they aren’t easy questions! No additional amount of preparation or solving of mocks would have made me ready to answer them correctly. The only way I could have got them right was through a lucky guess. Seriously, before this paper, how many of us had heard of GACSA? Yet, people debate over its answer as if their logic behind choosing their answer was better than the next person’s logic!

    Can’t we just agree that these were damn tough questions with confusing options that weren’t getting solved by eliminating one statement and so the probability of getting them right is very less? Can’t we just come to the conclusion that there were at least 10 such questions in the paper? An increased difficulty level of mere 5 questions compared to last year’s paper will lower the cutoff by 13.xx marks. I am not saying that this will happen for sure, but there is a very high probability of it happening. This consensus itself will bring out the fact that cutoff may see a big decline and will lend every restless soul some much sought after comfort.

    Funnily enough, this situation seems sort of like a “collective prisoners dilemma” , where, either we can all agree that the paper was indeed tough and cutoffs will decline by a good margin and thus, will be mentally at peace till the results come out, or we can try to one up each other by assuming the best case scenario marks for ourselves without caring about the common predicament for the rest of the prisoners. I need not tell you what happens in the second scenario!

    can't agree more bhai! i will be very honest. this was with my best preparation. i did it all from test papers to tikdams to elimination fundae, i mean everything and yet in the exam i was horrified. i look at the paper even now and i don't think i would've bettered my score by more than 5 marks! elimination wasn't working at all. it was all fact and it looked like random 100 questions from some source. how can one prepare something to which even Google is failing. I know it's an uncertain business and anything and everything is possible but i genuinely doubt 6000 people all over india would be getting more than 90-92 marks in this paper after seeing the people at ORN and MN!
    @focus bhai aapka kya prediction hai?
    bhai ab kuchh bolne mein bhi darr lagta. sab tukkebaazi potential se decide ho raha ab. but i feel 90-93 maximum. the main issue is of mains intake. agar last year se bahut kam nahi hua, I mean 11-12K tak bhi to it may be 87-88-89 too!
    Ha bhai par sabka yahi haal hai.
    I know atleast 10 people jo last year 125+ the 2018 pe sab 90-95 pe aagae..i strongly feel ki cutoff 87.xx hoga for general.
    Aap start krdo bhai padhai ,bhagvaan pe bharosa kro nikal jaega inshallah
    bhai jitne bhi UPSC aspirants hai unme se koi bhi apna score 85 se kam nhi bateygaa, cut off jayegi 84 ke aas pass aur bahut log jo 90+ the bahar honge
  • People who have appeared in interview multiple times are predicting lower cutoffs while those who have missed out in pre on a few occasions in the past are predicting higher cutoffs. Few possible reasons for this :-

    1. Its a sort of confirmation bias, those who have failed in pre before have a pre conceived notion that clearing prelims is not an easy task and if the cutoffs are 90 or less then toh sabka ho jayega! If this sort of person is getting 100+, he/she might think that the cutoff will lie very close to their own marks as they have struggled to clear the cutoff in the past.
    2. Those who have been clearing every time, unfortunately, suffer from the same bias. They think,arey agar hamara nahi hoga toh hoga kiska! Such people think that they are entitled to clear prelims by at least 6-8 marks every time.
    3. The first type of people generally have the tendency of telling their best case scenario marks while the latter type usually tell their worst case scenario. ( Of course, there are exceptions here.)

    Unfortunately, all of us belong to one type or the other . So none of our opinions can be absolutely objective. For this, we need to get out of the reference frame (our own track record) and assess the nature of questions asked, the closeness of the different options, the length of the question paper, no. of candidates appearing in the exam, no. of seats etc etc.

    Is there anyone who can claim to put in this much amount of objectivity in his/her assessment of the paper? That person’s prediction, will be the closest to actual cutoff.

    I will try to be objective, but of course I may be wrong. I analysed every question that I marked wrong. Air India chronology, fssai dghs, rajasthan’s ore mines and the list goes on. I found that they aren’t easy questions! No additional amount of preparation or solving of mocks would have made me ready to answer them correctly. The only way I could have got them right was through a lucky guess. Seriously, before this paper, how many of us had heard of GACSA? Yet, people debate over its answer as if their logic behind choosing their answer was better than the next person’s logic!

    Can’t we just agree that these were damn tough questions with confusing options that weren’t getting solved by eliminating one statement and so the probability of getting them right is very less? Can’t we just come to the conclusion that there were at least 10 such questions in the paper? An increased difficulty level of mere 5 questions compared to last year’s paper will lower the cutoff by 13.xx marks. I am not saying that this will happen for sure, but there is a very high probability of it happening. This consensus itself will bring out the fact that cutoff may see a big decline and will lend every restless soul some much sought after comfort.

    Funnily enough, this situation seems sort of like a “collective prisoners dilemma” , where, either we can all agree that the paper was indeed tough and cutoffs will decline by a good margin and thus, will be mentally at peace till the results come out, or we can try to one up each other by assuming the best case scenario marks for ourselves without caring about the common predicament for the rest of the prisoners. I need not tell you what happens in the second scenario!

    can't agree more bhai! i will be very honest. this was with my best preparation. i did it all from test papers to tikdams to elimination fundae, i mean everything and yet in the exam i was horrified. i look at the paper even now and i don't think i would've bettered my score by more than 5 marks! elimination wasn't working at all. it was all fact and it looked like random 100 questions from some source. how can one prepare something to which even Google is failing. I know it's an uncertain business and anything and everything is possible but i genuinely doubt 6000 people all over india would be getting more than 90-92 marks in this paper after seeing the people at ORN and MN!
    @focus bhai aapka kya prediction hai?
    bhai ab kuchh bolne mein bhi darr lagta. sab tukkebaazi potential se decide ho raha ab. but i feel 90-93 maximum. the main issue is of mains intake. agar last year se bahut kam nahi hua, I mean 11-12K tak bhi to it may be 87-88-89 too!
    Ha bhai par sabka yahi haal hai.
    I know atleast 10 people jo last year 125+ the 2018 pe sab 90-95 pe aagae..i strongly feel ki cutoff 87.xx hoga for general.
    Aap start krdo bhai padhai ,bhagvaan pe bharosa kro nikal jaega inshallah
    bhai jitne bhi UPSC aspirants hai unme se koi bhi apna score 85 se kam nhi bateygaa, cut off jayegi 84 ke aas pass aur bahut log jo 90+ the bahar honge
    Lets c bhai...kya hota hai..par itna pakka hai ki 15 marks to giregi hi cutoff
  • People who have appeared in interview multiple times are predicting lower cutoffs while those who have missed out in pre on a few occasions in the past are predicting higher cutoffs. Few possible reasons for this :-

    1. Its a sort of confirmation bias, those who have failed in pre before have a pre conceived notion that clearing prelims is not an easy task and if the cutoffs are 90 or less then toh sabka ho jayega! If this sort of person is getting 100+, he/she might think that the cutoff will lie very close to their own marks as they have struggled to clear the cutoff in the past.
    2. Those who have been clearing every time, unfortunately, suffer from the same bias. They think,arey agar hamara nahi hoga toh hoga kiska! Such people think that they are entitled to clear prelims by at least 6-8 marks every time.
    3. The first type of people generally have the tendency of telling their best case scenario marks while the latter type usually tell their worst case scenario. ( Of course, there are exceptions here.)

    Unfortunately, all of us belong to one type or the other . So none of our opinions can be absolutely objective. For this, we need to get out of the reference frame (our own track record) and assess the nature of questions asked, the closeness of the different options, the length of the question paper, no. of candidates appearing in the exam, no. of seats etc etc.

    Is there anyone who can claim to put in this much amount of objectivity in his/her assessment of the paper? That person’s prediction, will be the closest to actual cutoff.

    I will try to be objective, but of course I may be wrong. I analysed every question that I marked wrong. Air India chronology, fssai dghs, rajasthan’s ore mines and the list goes on. I found that they aren’t easy questions! No additional amount of preparation or solving of mocks would have made me ready to answer them correctly. The only way I could have got them right was through a lucky guess. Seriously, before this paper, how many of us had heard of GACSA? Yet, people debate over its answer as if their logic behind choosing their answer was better than the next person’s logic!

    Can’t we just agree that these were damn tough questions with confusing options that weren’t getting solved by eliminating one statement and so the probability of getting them right is very less? Can’t we just come to the conclusion that there were at least 10 such questions in the paper? An increased difficulty level of mere 5 questions compared to last year’s paper will lower the cutoff by 13.xx marks. I am not saying that this will happen for sure, but there is a very high probability of it happening. This consensus itself will bring out the fact that cutoff may see a big decline and will lend every restless soul some much sought after comfort.

    Funnily enough, this situation seems sort of like a “collective prisoners dilemma” , where, either we can all agree that the paper was indeed tough and cutoffs will decline by a good margin and thus, will be mentally at peace till the results come out, or we can try to one up each other by assuming the best case scenario marks for ourselves without caring about the common predicament for the rest of the prisoners. I need not tell you what happens in the second scenario!

    can't agree more bhai! i will be very honest. this was with my best preparation. i did it all from test papers to tikdams to elimination fundae, i mean everything and yet in the exam i was horrified. i look at the paper even now and i don't think i would've bettered my score by more than 5 marks! elimination wasn't working at all. it was all fact and it looked like random 100 questions from some source. how can one prepare something to which even Google is failing. I know it's an uncertain business and anything and everything is possible but i genuinely doubt 6000 people all over india would be getting more than 90-92 marks in this paper after seeing the people at ORN and MN!
    @focus bhai aapka kya prediction hai?
    bhai ab kuchh bolne mein bhi darr lagta. sab tukkebaazi potential se decide ho raha ab. but i feel 90-93 maximum. the main issue is of mains intake. agar last year se bahut kam nahi hua, I mean 11-12K tak bhi to it may be 87-88-89 too!
    Ha bhai par sabka yahi haal hai.
    I know atleast 10 people jo last year 125+ the 2018 pe sab 90-95 pe aagae..i strongly feel ki cutoff 87.xx hoga for general.
    Aap start krdo bhai padhai ,bhagvaan pe bharosa kro nikal jaega inshallah
    bhai jitne bhi UPSC aspirants hai unme se koi bhi apna score 85 se kam nhi bateygaa, cut off jayegi 84 ke aas pass aur bahut log jo 90+ the bahar honge
    Bhai yeh 2016 ka thread dekha udhar bhi aise hi sab low cut off krre the...I hope humlog galat direction main nhi jaarha...
  • People who have appeared in interview multiple times are predicting lower cutoffs while those who have missed out in pre on a few occasions in the past are predicting higher cutoffs. Few possible reasons for this :-

    1. Its a sort of confirmation bias, those who have failed in pre before have a pre conceived notion that clearing prelims is not an easy task and if the cutoffs are 90 or less then toh sabka ho jayega! If this sort of person is getting 100+, he/she might think that the cutoff will lie very close to their own marks as they have struggled to clear the cutoff in the past.
    2. Those who have been clearing every time, unfortunately, suffer from the same bias. They think,arey agar hamara nahi hoga toh hoga kiska! Such people think that they are entitled to clear prelims by at least 6-8 marks every time.
    3. The first type of people generally have the tendency of telling their best case scenario marks while the latter type usually tell their worst case scenario. ( Of course, there are exceptions here.)

    Unfortunately, all of us belong to one type or the other . So none of our opinions can be absolutely objective. For this, we need to get out of the reference frame (our own track record) and assess the nature of questions asked, the closeness of the different options, the length of the question paper, no. of candidates appearing in the exam, no. of seats etc etc.

    Is there anyone who can claim to put in this much amount of objectivity in his/her assessment of the paper? That person’s prediction, will be the closest to actual cutoff.

    I will try to be objective, but of course I may be wrong. I analysed every question that I marked wrong. Air India chronology, fssai dghs, rajasthan’s ore mines and the list goes on. I found that they aren’t easy questions! No additional amount of preparation or solving of mocks would have made me ready to answer them correctly. The only way I could have got them right was through a lucky guess. Seriously, before this paper, how many of us had heard of GACSA? Yet, people debate over its answer as if their logic behind choosing their answer was better than the next person’s logic!

    Can’t we just agree that these were damn tough questions with confusing options that weren’t getting solved by eliminating one statement and so the probability of getting them right is very less? Can’t we just come to the conclusion that there were at least 10 such questions in the paper? An increased difficulty level of mere 5 questions compared to last year’s paper will lower the cutoff by 13.xx marks. I am not saying that this will happen for sure, but there is a very high probability of it happening. This consensus itself will bring out the fact that cutoff may see a big decline and will lend every restless soul some much sought after comfort.

    Funnily enough, this situation seems sort of like a “collective prisoners dilemma” , where, either we can all agree that the paper was indeed tough and cutoffs will decline by a good margin and thus, will be mentally at peace till the results come out, or we can try to one up each other by assuming the best case scenario marks for ourselves without caring about the common predicament for the rest of the prisoners. I need not tell you what happens in the second scenario!

    can't agree more bhai! i will be very honest. this was with my best preparation. i did it all from test papers to tikdams to elimination fundae, i mean everything and yet in the exam i was horrified. i look at the paper even now and i don't think i would've bettered my score by more than 5 marks! elimination wasn't working at all. it was all fact and it looked like random 100 questions from some source. how can one prepare something to which even Google is failing. I know it's an uncertain business and anything and everything is possible but i genuinely doubt 6000 people all over india would be getting more than 90-92 marks in this paper after seeing the people at ORN and MN!
    @focus bhai aapka kya prediction hai?
    bhai ab kuchh bolne mein bhi darr lagta. sab tukkebaazi potential se decide ho raha ab. but i feel 90-93 maximum. the main issue is of mains intake. agar last year se bahut kam nahi hua, I mean 11-12K tak bhi to it may be 87-88-89 too!
    Ha bhai par sabka yahi haal hai.
    I know atleast 10 people jo last year 125+ the 2018 pe sab 90-95 pe aagae..i strongly feel ki cutoff 87.xx hoga for general.
    Aap start krdo bhai padhai ,bhagvaan pe bharosa kro nikal jaega inshallah
    bhai jitne bhi UPSC aspirants hai unme se koi bhi apna score 85 se kam nhi bateygaa, cut off jayegi 84 ke aas pass aur bahut log jo 90+ the bahar honge
    Bhai yeh 2016 ka thread dekha udhar bhi aise hi sab low cut off krre the...I hope humlog galat direction main nhi jaarha...
    bhai 2016 ka paper baccha hai 2018 wale paper ke saamne :)
  • Due to slash in GST rates for cutoff.
    New cutoff is pegged at 95. :mrgreen:
    Agree wit u
  • People who have appeared in interview multiple times are predicting lower cutoffs while those who have missed out in pre on a few occasions in the past are predicting higher cutoffs. Few possible reasons for this :-

    1. Its a sort of confirmation bias, those who have failed in pre before have a pre conceived notion that clearing prelims is not an easy task and if the cutoffs are 90 or less then toh sabka ho jayega! If this sort of person is getting 100+, he/she might think that the cutoff will lie very close to their own marks as they have struggled to clear the cutoff in the past.
    2. Those who have been clearing every time, unfortunately, suffer from the same bias. They think,arey agar hamara nahi hoga toh hoga kiska! Such people think that they are entitled to clear prelims by at least 6-8 marks every time.
    3. The first type of people generally have the tendency of telling their best case scenario marks while the latter type usually tell their worst case scenario. ( Of course, there are exceptions here.)

    Unfortunately, all of us belong to one type or the other . So none of our opinions can be absolutely objective. For this, we need to get out of the reference frame (our own track record) and assess the nature of questions asked, the closeness of the different options, the length of the question paper, no. of candidates appearing in the exam, no. of seats etc etc.

    Is there anyone who can claim to put in this much amount of objectivity in his/her assessment of the paper? That person’s prediction, will be the closest to actual cutoff.

    I will try to be objective, but of course I may be wrong. I analysed every question that I marked wrong. Air India chronology, fssai dghs, rajasthan’s ore mines and the list goes on. I found that they aren’t easy questions! No additional amount of preparation or solving of mocks would have made me ready to answer them correctly. The only way I could have got them right was through a lucky guess. Seriously, before this paper, how many of us had heard of GACSA? Yet, people debate over its answer as if their logic behind choosing their answer was better than the next person’s logic!

    Can’t we just agree that these were damn tough questions with confusing options that weren’t getting solved by eliminating one statement and so the probability of getting them right is very less? Can’t we just come to the conclusion that there were at least 10 such questions in the paper? An increased difficulty level of mere 5 questions compared to last year’s paper will lower the cutoff by 13.xx marks. I am not saying that this will happen for sure, but there is a very high probability of it happening. This consensus itself will bring out the fact that cutoff may see a big decline and will lend every restless soul some much sought after comfort.

    Funnily enough, this situation seems sort of like a “collective prisoners dilemma” , where, either we can all agree that the paper was indeed tough and cutoffs will decline by a good margin and thus, will be mentally at peace till the results come out, or we can try to one up each other by assuming the best case scenario marks for ourselves without caring about the common predicament for the rest of the prisoners. I need not tell you what happens in the second scenario!

    can't agree more bhai! i will be very honest. this was with my best preparation. i did it all from test papers to tikdams to elimination fundae, i mean everything and yet in the exam i was horrified. i look at the paper even now and i don't think i would've bettered my score by more than 5 marks! elimination wasn't working at all. it was all fact and it looked like random 100 questions from some source. how can one prepare something to which even Google is failing. I know it's an uncertain business and anything and everything is possible but i genuinely doubt 6000 people all over india would be getting more than 90-92 marks in this paper after seeing the people at ORN and MN!
    @focus bhai aapka kya prediction hai?
    bhai ab kuchh bolne mein bhi darr lagta. sab tukkebaazi potential se decide ho raha ab. but i feel 90-93 maximum. the main issue is of mains intake. agar last year se bahut kam nahi hua, I mean 11-12K tak bhi to it may be 87-88-89 too!
    Ha bhai par sabka yahi haal hai.
    I know atleast 10 people jo last year 125+ the 2018 pe sab 90-95 pe aagae..i strongly feel ki cutoff 87.xx hoga for general.
    Aap start krdo bhai padhai ,bhagvaan pe bharosa kro nikal jaega inshallah
    bhai jitne bhi UPSC aspirants hai unme se koi bhi apna score 85 se kam nhi bateygaa, cut off jayegi 84 ke aas pass aur bahut log jo 90+ the bahar honge
    Lets c bhai...kya hota hai..par itna pakka hai ki 15 marks to giregi hi cutoff
    yes..below 90 is a certainty
  • People who have appeared in interview multiple times are predicting lower cutoffs while those who have missed out in pre on a few occasions in the past are predicting higher cutoffs. Few possible reasons for this :-

    1. Its a sort of confirmation bias, those who have failed in pre before have a pre conceived notion that clearing prelims is not an easy task and if the cutoffs are 90 or less then toh sabka ho jayega! If this sort of person is getting 100+, he/she might think that the cutoff will lie very close to their own marks as they have struggled to clear the cutoff in the past.
    2. Those who have been clearing every time, unfortunately, suffer from the same bias. They think,arey agar hamara nahi hoga toh hoga kiska! Such people think that they are entitled to clear prelims by at least 6-8 marks every time.
    3. The first type of people generally have the tendency of telling their best case scenario marks while the latter type usually tell their worst case scenario. ( Of course, there are exceptions here.)

    Unfortunately, all of us belong to one type or the other . So none of our opinions can be absolutely objective. For this, we need to get out of the reference frame (our own track record) and assess the nature of questions asked, the closeness of the different options, the length of the question paper, no. of candidates appearing in the exam, no. of seats etc etc.

    Is there anyone who can claim to put in this much amount of objectivity in his/her assessment of the paper? That person’s prediction, will be the closest to actual cutoff.

    I will try to be objective, but of course I may be wrong. I analysed every question that I marked wrong. Air India chronology, fssai dghs, rajasthan’s ore mines and the list goes on. I found that they aren’t easy questions! No additional amount of preparation or solving of mocks would have made me ready to answer them correctly. The only way I could have got them right was through a lucky guess. Seriously, before this paper, how many of us had heard of GACSA? Yet, people debate over its answer as if their logic behind choosing their answer was better than the next person’s logic!

    Can’t we just agree that these were damn tough questions with confusing options that weren’t getting solved by eliminating one statement and so the probability of getting them right is very less? Can’t we just come to the conclusion that there were at least 10 such questions in the paper? An increased difficulty level of mere 5 questions compared to last year’s paper will lower the cutoff by 13.xx marks. I am not saying that this will happen for sure, but there is a very high probability of it happening. This consensus itself will bring out the fact that cutoff may see a big decline and will lend every restless soul some much sought after comfort.

    Funnily enough, this situation seems sort of like a “collective prisoners dilemma” , where, either we can all agree that the paper was indeed tough and cutoffs will decline by a good margin and thus, will be mentally at peace till the results come out, or we can try to one up each other by assuming the best case scenario marks for ourselves without caring about the common predicament for the rest of the prisoners. I need not tell you what happens in the second scenario!

    can't agree more bhai! i will be very honest. this was with my best preparation. i did it all from test papers to tikdams to elimination fundae, i mean everything and yet in the exam i was horrified. i look at the paper even now and i don't think i would've bettered my score by more than 5 marks! elimination wasn't working at all. it was all fact and it looked like random 100 questions from some source. how can one prepare something to which even Google is failing. I know it's an uncertain business and anything and everything is possible but i genuinely doubt 6000 people all over india would be getting more than 90-92 marks in this paper after seeing the people at ORN and MN!
    @focus bhai aapka kya prediction hai?
    bhai ab kuchh bolne mein bhi darr lagta. sab tukkebaazi potential se decide ho raha ab. but i feel 90-93 maximum. the main issue is of mains intake. agar last year se bahut kam nahi hua, I mean 11-12K tak bhi to it may be 87-88-89 too!
    Ha bhai par sabka yahi haal hai.
    I know atleast 10 people jo last year 125+ the 2018 pe sab 90-95 pe aagae..i strongly feel ki cutoff 87.xx hoga for general.
    Aap start krdo bhai padhai ,bhagvaan pe bharosa kro nikal jaega inshallah
    if clubbing is near 90-95 then i am afraid it's going to be 95-96 :neutral:
  • People who have appeared in interview multiple times are predicting lower cutoffs while those who have missed out in pre on a few occasions in the past are predicting higher cutoffs. Few possible reasons for this :-

    1. Its a sort of confirmation bias, those who have failed in pre before have a pre conceived notion that clearing prelims is not an easy task and if the cutoffs are 90 or less then toh sabka ho jayega! If this sort of person is getting 100+, he/she might think that the cutoff will lie very close to their own marks as they have struggled to clear the cutoff in the past.
    2. Those who have been clearing every time, unfortunately, suffer from the same bias. They think,arey agar hamara nahi hoga toh hoga kiska! Such people think that they are entitled to clear prelims by at least 6-8 marks every time.
    3. The first type of people generally have the tendency of telling their best case scenario marks while the latter type usually tell their worst case scenario. ( Of course, there are exceptions here.)

    Unfortunately, all of us belong to one type or the other . So none of our opinions can be absolutely objective. For this, we need to get out of the reference frame (our own track record) and assess the nature of questions asked, the closeness of the different options, the length of the question paper, no. of candidates appearing in the exam, no. of seats etc etc.

    Is there anyone who can claim to put in this much amount of objectivity in his/her assessment of the paper? That person’s prediction, will be the closest to actual cutoff.

    I will try to be objective, but of course I may be wrong. I analysed every question that I marked wrong. Air India chronology, fssai dghs, rajasthan’s ore mines and the list goes on. I found that they aren’t easy questions! No additional amount of preparation or solving of mocks would have made me ready to answer them correctly. The only way I could have got them right was through a lucky guess. Seriously, before this paper, how many of us had heard of GACSA? Yet, people debate over its answer as if their logic behind choosing their answer was better than the next person’s logic!

    Can’t we just agree that these were damn tough questions with confusing options that weren’t getting solved by eliminating one statement and so the probability of getting them right is very less? Can’t we just come to the conclusion that there were at least 10 such questions in the paper? An increased difficulty level of mere 5 questions compared to last year’s paper will lower the cutoff by 13.xx marks. I am not saying that this will happen for sure, but there is a very high probability of it happening. This consensus itself will bring out the fact that cutoff may see a big decline and will lend every restless soul some much sought after comfort.

    Funnily enough, this situation seems sort of like a “collective prisoners dilemma” , where, either we can all agree that the paper was indeed tough and cutoffs will decline by a good margin and thus, will be mentally at peace till the results come out, or we can try to one up each other by assuming the best case scenario marks for ourselves without caring about the common predicament for the rest of the prisoners. I need not tell you what happens in the second scenario!

    can't agree more bhai! i will be very honest. this was with my best preparation. i did it all from test papers to tikdams to elimination fundae, i mean everything and yet in the exam i was horrified. i look at the paper even now and i don't think i would've bettered my score by more than 5 marks! elimination wasn't working at all. it was all fact and it looked like random 100 questions from some source. how can one prepare something to which even Google is failing. I know it's an uncertain business and anything and everything is possible but i genuinely doubt 6000 people all over india would be getting more than 90-92 marks in this paper after seeing the people at ORN and MN!
    @focus bhai aapka kya prediction hai?
    bhai ab kuchh bolne mein bhi darr lagta. sab tukkebaazi potential se decide ho raha ab. but i feel 90-93 maximum. the main issue is of mains intake. agar last year se bahut kam nahi hua, I mean 11-12K tak bhi to it may be 87-88-89 too!
    Ha bhai par sabka yahi haal hai.
    I know atleast 10 people jo last year 125+ the 2018 pe sab 90-95 pe aagae..i strongly feel ki cutoff 87.xx hoga for general.
    Aap start krdo bhai padhai ,bhagvaan pe bharosa kro nikal jaega inshallah
    if clubbing is near 90-95 then i am afraid it's going to be 95-96 :neutral:
    dere is no actual clubbng..its only psychological and social clubbing
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