INTERVIEW FOR CSE 2019 All ForumIAS members selected for CSE 2019 Personality Test must submit their details and DAF and register below to receive further instructions and guidance from ForumIAS. Click here to register now
INTERVIEW 2020 CHANNEL ForumIAS Channel for Interview Preparation is now Active! Please join the channel by clicking here
What possible gains/losses/opportunities/stakes? Is it worth the effort ? Is cold war 2 in the making? How does it the effect the geopolitics of S. Asia? Has India drifted away from its soft power tag? Dilution of NAM?
What possible gains/losses/opportunities/stakes? Is it worth the effort ?
Despite MTCR, technology could be traded in category 2, and only category 1 was difficult to procure. Category 1 is anyway not traded/transferred as it is deemed too strategically important. Thus MTCR seems to be the low hanging fruit with little value. There were earlier some Indian firms which were black-listed and ISRO too suffered earlier being denied missile tech under MTCR. But now with the progress made, there is really very little technical advantage of MTCR entry. Also many nations like Brazil and SA have reduced their missile projects due to MTCR pressure (there is no formal punitive mechanism though). So chances are that India may be allowed to retain it's current arsenal but pressured to drop its future development depending upon the political developments ahead.
NSG is a different game altogether. It is crucial for technology (even third party tech like - Japan's reluctance causing hindrance in Westinghouse project). But for it, China needs to support India. China would want similar waivers and treatment to Pak too in return, which looks unlikely given it's abysmal nuclear record. India would gain nuclear material and tech crucial for its energy needs. There seems little to lose as India already has delineated its civil nuclear program from its military and placed the former under IAEA and additional protocol. India also agrees with FMCT so no concern there as well. The only concern is NPT which India may be pressured to sign. CTBT seems to be irrelevant from India's perspective because it is on a self-imposed moratorium.
Is cold war 2 in the making?
No one can answer that but clearly there are groups forming with China-Russia vs the West. While India was Russia-centric till now, US is trying to pull it in it's camp since Bush. Current development is interesting because China is part of and has veto in NSG but excluded from MTCR and now India is in MTCR and needs NSG. So there could be some quid-pro-quo, but not with India - which is still a kid at the big-boys table. Global trade and economics complicates the matter though and war in the conventional sense is far fetched. Rather proxy wars on the fronts of tariff, dumping, cyber, currency, geopolitics (Syria, Iran etc), asset-freeze would predominate.
How does it the effect the geopolitics of S. Asia?
MTCR entry is merely indicative of neo west-philia of India. Depending on how duplicitously US tackles Indo-Pak (with recent re-hyphenation indicated) and if/how-much India manages to scrape through in return from US on Pak front, geopolitics of S.Asia will be decided. Chances are that China will do as it pleases (like OBOR in PoK) and Pak will do as it pleases (like Pathankot) and US will merely lend words and quench the egos of Indian leaders without any real action, unless China heads to Japan or S.Korea - the true allies of US. MTCR has little effect on geopolitics of S.Asia other than symbolic. NSG would create some impact though.
Has India drifted away from its soft power tag?
India is trying to add hard-power to its soft one - like US. Nothing wrong in that. Yoga day, hot yoga (look it up and thank me later ) etc still convey India's soft power. India has considerable technology to be a middle-weight wrt hard-power, but it is obscured by other very conspicuous things like poverty, rape etc. Thus MTCR, NSG, UN, IMF reforms are less about acquiring the real tech/financial/strategic power and more about "looking" powerful.
Dilution of NAM?
NAM dilution had already begun with PVNR's "look east" and is obsolete in the muti-polar world of NaMo's Act East. Omni-allignment is the new fad.
Any other views?
Tell me, if I'd stabbed the mad king in the belly instead of the back, would you admire me more?
We are a secret self-moderated community for Civil Services preparation. Feel free to join, start a discussion, answer a question or just to say Thank you.Just dont spread the word ;)Sign in or join with Facebook or Google
ForumIAS is India’s leading Online website for UPSC IAS Exam Online Preparation and guidance. At ForumIAS, we have a dream. Our dream is to make its members achieve their IAS dream. Today thousands of aspirants have joined the elite services such as IAS, IPS, IFS, IRS and other central and state services with the right inputs provided by ForumIAS. Take a look at our IAS Toppers
Free IAS Online Preparation Initiatives by ForumIAS
Current affairs is the most important part of UPSC IAS exam. ForumIAS provides a detailed analysis of important news articles through its 9PM brief. In current affairs reading Editorials Online needs an in-depth focus and hence we provide a separate analysis of daily editorials which is not found in any other website. Click the following link to access these free preparation initiatives in Portal . ForumIAS also provides compilations and Free downloads for UPSC IAS preparation
Knowing is never enough for IAS exam. An IAS aspirant must be engaged in answer writing practice to do well in UPSC IAS Mains Exam. ForumIAS has launched a Mains Marathon initiative for IAS mains Online answer writing. Click here to access UPSC Mains Marathon initiative . For Daily Must Read Newspaper articles, Visit Must Read Newspaper page here. Must Read Newspaper is an Initiative by Team ForumIAS to provide Current Affairs links to the Must Read Articles of The Day from Newspaper.
UPSC Syllabus
The most important part of UPSC IAS exam is its syllabus and there is a need to take an in-depth look at it. Click here to view the UPSC IAS Prelims syllabus. Visit UPSC IAS syllabus page here
UPSC IAS Study Material
ForumIAS is the repository of many toppers’ Online study materials for GS Mains and Optional subjects. The most unique thing about it is that they are handwritten by toppers themselves. Click here for UPSC sample notes
Interview Preparation for IAS
Interview is the last and crucial stage for becoming an IAS officer. How to prepare for it? We provide a solution. ForumIAS is the only online website where quality IAS interview preparations happen. Online Current affairs from an interview perspective are extensively discussed and specific preparation based on candidate’s profile and hobbies can be done. Please visit this link for UPSC Interview Preparation
At ForumIAS we have an exclusive Online page to read the UPSC Interview Transcripts
Indian Forest Service (IFoS)
IFoS is one of the most sought after All India Service. ForumIAS provides the right approach to excel in this exam through their toppers who have shared their success mantras and their study materials in an elaborate manner.
About Indian Administrative Service (IAS)
IAS is considered as one of the best jobs on earth. IAS officers hold the most important positions in Central and State Governments and in Public Sector Undertakings (PSUs). They also represent India in international organizations. They take the most important decisions in the administration of Government policies and development programs.
About Indian Police Service (IPS)
IPS officers occupy higher positions in the State Police Departments, Central Armed Police Forces and Intelligence Agencies. Their most important responsibilities are maintenance of Law and Order and internal security.
About Indian Foreign Service (IFS)
IFS officers serve as diplomats in international missions and embassies of India around the world and in prominent international organizations like United Nations (UN), World Bank, and IMF. They work to promote India’s interests from a bilateral and a global perspective.
The Study portal is a single point of online IAS preparation through its several initiatives like the Must Read News Articles, the 9 PM Brief, the Mains Marathon. If you are preparing for IAS exam online, ForumIAS is the place to go. ForumIAS is proud of ForumIAS Alumni in UPSC Service who have secured top Ranks in past 5 years.
Visit Us At
ForumIAS - Offline Guidance Centre
ForumIAS Academy, 1st Floor, IAPL House, 19, Pusa Road, Opposite Metro Pillar 95-96, Karol Bagh, New Delhi-110005,
View Google Map Location
Comments
What possible gains/losses/opportunities/stakes? Is it worth the effort ?
Despite MTCR, technology could be traded in category 2, and only category 1 was difficult to procure. Category 1 is anyway not traded/transferred as it is deemed too strategically important. Thus MTCR seems to be the low hanging fruit with little value. There were earlier some Indian firms which were black-listed and ISRO too suffered earlier being denied missile tech under MTCR. But now with the progress made, there is really very little technical advantage of MTCR entry. Also many nations like Brazil and SA have reduced their missile projects due to MTCR pressure (there is no formal punitive mechanism though). So chances are that India may be allowed to retain it's current arsenal but pressured to drop its future development depending upon the political developments ahead.
NSG is a different game altogether. It is crucial for technology (even third party tech like - Japan's reluctance causing hindrance in Westinghouse project). But for it, China needs to support India. China would want similar waivers and treatment to Pak too in return, which looks unlikely given it's abysmal nuclear record. India would gain nuclear material and tech crucial for its energy needs. There seems little to lose as India already has delineated its civil nuclear program from its military and placed the former under IAEA and additional protocol. India also agrees with FMCT so no concern there as well. The only concern is NPT which India may be pressured to sign. CTBT seems to be irrelevant from India's perspective because it is on a self-imposed moratorium.
Is cold war 2 in the making?
No one can answer that but clearly there are groups forming with China-Russia vs the West. While India was Russia-centric till now, US is trying to pull it in it's camp since Bush. Current development is interesting because China is part of and has veto in NSG but excluded from MTCR and now India is in MTCR and needs NSG. So there could be some quid-pro-quo, but not with India - which is still a kid at the big-boys table. Global trade and economics complicates the matter though and war in the conventional sense is far fetched. Rather proxy wars on the fronts of tariff, dumping, cyber, currency, geopolitics (Syria, Iran etc), asset-freeze would predominate.
How does it the effect the geopolitics of S. Asia?
MTCR entry is merely indicative of neo west-philia of India. Depending on how duplicitously US tackles Indo-Pak (with recent re-hyphenation indicated) and if/how-much India manages to scrape through in return from US on Pak front, geopolitics of S.Asia will be decided. Chances are that China will do as it pleases (like OBOR in PoK) and Pak will do as it pleases (like Pathankot) and US will merely lend words and quench the egos of Indian leaders without any real action, unless China heads to Japan or S.Korea - the true allies of US. MTCR has little effect on geopolitics of S.Asia other than symbolic. NSG would create some impact though.
Has India drifted away from its soft power tag?
India is trying to add hard-power to its soft one - like US. Nothing wrong in that. Yoga day, hot yoga (look it up and thank me later
Dilution of NAM?
NAM dilution had already begun with PVNR's "look east" and is obsolete in the muti-polar world of NaMo's Act East. Omni-allignment is the new fad.
Any other views?
Tell me, if I'd stabbed the mad king in the belly instead of the back, would you admire me more?