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Article on Kerry- Lavrov agreement for peace in Syria
On 10 September 2016, US Secretary of State John Kerry and his Russian counterpart Sergey Lavrov announced a cease-fire agreement in Geneva following negotiations that lasted over ten months. The agreement was not a cease-fire between Russia and the US, but one between their proxies. Russia was answerable for President Bashar Assad and his allies that include Russia. The US was responsible for the ‘moderate’ rebels supported by the West and its allies. The two major rebel groups, ISIL and Jabhat Fateh al-Sham, were excluded from the cease-fire. Since the cease-fire has been violated a number of times, one may assume that those who signed the agreement did not have full control over those who fire.
In conclusion, the Kerry-Lavrov agreement did not work because those who had to cease fire were not willing to abide by it. Lavrov had the easier task as he had to make only Assad comply. Kerry had to convince a multiplicity of actors and his colleague Defense Secretary Carter who had publicly aired his strong reservations about coordinating military action with Russia. The Geneva cease-fire agreement showed Kerry’s tenacity of purpose; he had worked on it for 10 months. There was an unpleasant exchange between Kerry and Lavrov at the Security Council (21 September). Kerry wondered whether Lavrov inhabited a ‘parallel universe’. Kerry may be right. But it follows that Kerry too is in a parallel universe of his own if he honestly believed that Russia and Assad really wanted an end to the horrendous bloodletting except on their terms and that he (Kerry) had the necessary clout to make the multitudinous actors in Syria comply with the agreement he made with Lavrov, even if they are called ‘moderates’. The US under Obama has painted itself into a corner in Syria with diminishing good options. What Obama’s successor might do is anybody’s guess. But, any worthwhile progress towards an end to the killing in Syria is unlikely to take place before the next US President assumes office. And it needs inexhaustible optimism to believe that the killing will stop any time soon.
Obama being evaluated on his foreign policy success and failures
Relations with India
Obama succeeded in bringing India into a closer defence cooperation relationship marked by the signing of LEMOA (Logistics Exchange Memorandum of Agreement) in August 2016. Critics have unfairly faulted him for not getting India into the Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG). A comparison with what Bush did in 2008 in getting an NSG waiver for the Indo-US nuclear agreement does not hold as China’s clout has grown considerably in the intervening years. Closer defence cooperation with India is part of the ‘pivot’. Score: 7 out of 10.
In its 2007 audit report, the Comptroller and Auditor General of India (CAG) had noted that the basic problem of India’s defence acquisition framework was its dispersed centres of responsibility and lack of professionalism in acquisition.
The French Acquisition System
In contrast to India’s defence acquisition system, several countries such as the UK, France and Australia follow a more centralised system of procurement. France, in particular, has been highly successful in promoting a domestic-industry-driven procurement system. It is one of the few countries in the world to have developed an advanced defence manufacturing base that is capable of producing the full spectrum of military items, including nuclear weapons. Nearly 90 per cent of France’s defence requirement is produced indigenously,7 and the French authorities openly boast that their system has “inspired other countries to copy”.8 It is no surprise that the Kelkar Committee, appointed by the MoD to suggest measures to promote self-reliance, in its April 2005 report, Towards Strengthening Self Reliance in Defence Preparedness, suggested an examination of the feasibility of emulating the French system. The present Vivek Rae Committee might also follow suit.
DGA: The Linchpin
At the fulcrum of French defence procurement is the Direction Générale de l’Armement (DGA), one of the three pillars of the Ministry of Defence (Figure 1). The DGA is responsible for a vast array of defence acquisition functions relating to research, development, test evaluation, production and export of defence equipment. The DGA’s predecessor, the Ministerial Delegation for Armament (DMA), was set up on 4 April 1961 by President Charles de Gaulle by merging service-specific armament directorates dealing with land, naval and air equipment and powder manufactures into one entity. The DMA was renamed as DGA in 1977.
Govt has decided to scrap Tariff Authority for Major Ports when it goes for an overhaul of the institutional structure of 11 ports by converting them to authorities from trustee set-up.
Cabinet is considering to make zinc coating mandatory in areas like automobiles, construction and also can be deployed in flagship schemes like PM Aawas Yojana.
- Saves loss due to corrosion, boost to GDP - Consumption of Zinc will increase, India being the third largest producer will get a ready domestic market. - prolong life of assets
Though India’s steel production cost is about $320-$340 per tonne compared to $400 in China and the global average of $390, it is uncompetitive in global markets due to freight costs, higher credit costs, industrial power tariffs, high iron ore royalties, import duties and cess on coking coal.
“For example, freight cost from Jamshedpur to Mumbai can be as high as $50/tonne in comparison with $34 a ton from Rotterdam to Mumbai… These factors have made Indian steel uncompetitive as the final cost of steel rises to around $420 per ton,” he said.
China’s 10-year agreement with Djibouti in 2015 for the setting up of a naval replenishment facility in the northern Obock region is widely seen by Indian experts as proof of the PLA Navy’s strategic ambitions in the IOR.
This does not mean that New Delhi is going to team up with the United States in an effort to contain China. On the contrary, Indian policymakers clearly recognize that naval manoeuvres in the SCS emphasising "freedom of navigation" are a risky proposition. While India would like to see all parties act in accordance with the law, New Delhi will not take sides on the territorial disputes. Even so, the possibility that China might eclipse India in its own "backyard" will continue to drive a security response in New Delhi, even as it seeks to strengthen the Indian naval presence in its near and extended waters.
Article on India Bangladesh relationship in special refernces to Integrated Check posts (ICPs).
This July, Petrapole ICP was launched. This was second ICP between India and Bangladesh after Tripura ICP.
The importance of the Petrapole ICP, apart from boosting bilateral trade, lies in the context of improved connectivity and trade and transit between the north-eastern states and the rest of the country through Bangladesh. Consequent on the above-mentioned transit facilities granted to India by the positively disposed present government in Bangladesh, the ICP at the Petrapole-Benapole border point (Benapole is on the Bangladesh side), which isequipped with all the requisite trade enabling facilities, assumes special significance. Being the relevant local authority, the West Bengal Government will be required to both provide adequate municipal services in the adjoining area and ensure appropriate law and order environment in the North 24 Parganas district through which National Highway-35 passes, leading to the Bongaon-Petrapole ICP. Furthermore, a widening of this National Highway to four-lane width in the Kolkata-Bongaon-Petrapole axis and maintaining it properly are a sine qua non for the further growth of India-Bangladesh trade as well as for meeting the developmental needs of the north-eastern region. Quite significantly, during the June 21 inauguration of the Petrapole ICP, the West Bengal chief minister also spoke about the need for opening a police station at the ICP.
Wani’s initial stint in the HM in 2011 was that of a courier/messenger; the differentiator came with his cyber outreach. He created a Twitter handle @Gazi_Burhan2 in October 2012, which he used to upload photographs of atrocities – overtly graphic pictures of violence – allegedly perpetrated by Security forces as well as virulently anti-India and anti-Modi content.2 His calls for joining the ‘Jihad’ were accompanied by qur’anic verses, emotive demands for “Azadi” and exhortations to establish the Nizam-e-Mustafa (God’s government) in Kashmir. In a first action of its kind, he started sending photographs of himself and other militants with faces uncovered, in identifiable locations around Srinagar, which gave disaffected youth a sense of identity and imparted the idea that militancy was a heroic, fairly risk-free, job. His message to join the ‘Jihad’, and not become informers of the Army or Police, gained traction. And in an obvious recruitment drive, he offered remunerations of Rs 35,000 to whomever was willing to join.3 His video and twitter messages highlighted his fight against the Indian establishment. And because of his tweets, Mohammad Ikhlaq, lynched in Dadri on suspicion of consuming beef, and Zahid Ahmed, a Kashmiri trucker who was attacked in Udhampur, have become household names across the Valley.4
In August 2015, Wani uploaded a video on a Facebook account calling for the establishment of a Khilafat in Kashmir. This was a message sent to his target audience to emphasise the Islamic underpinnings of his initiatives. There were no calls for plebiscite or implementation of UN resolutions on Kashmir, etc. Instead, the communication was directed to the Kashmiri youth, urging them to join his outfit, and to the Kashmir police, asking them to shun their fight against the militants. There were no references to the ageing Hurriyat Council or the HM leadership in Pakistan. The video, which was professionally made with Burhan Wani and two other militants in military fatigues, with a Kalashnikov, a pistol and a Quran prominently displayed, went viral in minutes and was widely circulated on WhatsApp in Kashmir, before the Kashmir police took action to block the page. The Cyber Cell of Kashmir police in Srinagar has been valiantly combating the activities of Wani and other militants/sympathisers in the virtual world, but is seriously constrained by lack of qualified staff and meagre resources.
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Comments
On 10 September 2016, US Secretary of State John Kerry and his Russian counterpart Sergey Lavrov announced a cease-fire agreement in Geneva following negotiations that lasted over ten months. The agreement was not a cease-fire between Russia and the US, but one between their proxies. Russia was answerable for President Bashar Assad and his allies that include Russia. The US was responsible for the ‘moderate’ rebels supported by the West and its allies. The two major rebel groups, ISIL and Jabhat Fateh al-Sham, were excluded from the cease-fire. Since the cease-fire has been violated a number of times, one may assume that those who signed the agreement did not have full control over those who fire.
http://www.idsa.in/idsacomments/syria-the-cease-fire-that-was-and-wasnt_kpfabian_230916
In conclusion, the Kerry-Lavrov agreement did not work because those who had to cease fire were not willing to abide by it. Lavrov had the easier task as he had to make only Assad comply. Kerry had to convince a multiplicity of actors and his colleague Defense Secretary Carter who had publicly aired his strong reservations about coordinating military action with Russia. The Geneva cease-fire agreement showed Kerry’s tenacity of purpose; he had worked on it for 10 months. There was an unpleasant exchange between Kerry and Lavrov at the Security Council (21 September). Kerry wondered whether Lavrov inhabited a ‘parallel universe’. Kerry may be right. But it follows that Kerry too is in a parallel universe of his own if he honestly believed that Russia and Assad really wanted an end to the horrendous bloodletting except on their terms and that he (Kerry) had the necessary clout to make the multitudinous actors in Syria comply with the agreement he made with Lavrov, even if they are called ‘moderates’. The US under Obama has painted itself into a corner in Syria with diminishing good options. What Obama’s successor might do is anybody’s guess. But, any worthwhile progress towards an end to the killing in Syria is unlikely to take place before the next US President assumes office. And it needs inexhaustible optimism to believe that the killing will stop any time soon.
Relations with India
Obama succeeded in bringing India into a closer defence cooperation relationship marked by the signing of LEMOA (Logistics Exchange Memorandum of Agreement) in August 2016. Critics have unfairly faulted him for not getting India into the Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG). A comparison with what Bush did in 2008 in getting an NSG waiver for the Indo-US nuclear agreement does not hold as China’s clout has grown considerably in the intervening years. Closer defence cooperation with India is part of the ‘pivot’.
Score: 7 out of 10.
Overall score: 62.5 per cent.
http://www.idsa.in/idsacomments/assessment-president-obama-foreign-policy_kpfabian_080916
http://www.idsa.in/idsacomments/french-solution-india-defence-acquisition-problem_lkbehera_290816
In its 2007 audit report, the Comptroller and Auditor General of India (CAG) had noted that the basic problem of India’s defence acquisition framework was its dispersed centres of responsibility and lack of professionalism in acquisition.
The French Acquisition System
In contrast to India’s defence acquisition system, several countries such as the UK, France and Australia follow a more centralised system of procurement. France, in particular, has been highly successful in promoting a domestic-industry-driven procurement system. It is one of the few countries in the world to have developed an advanced defence manufacturing base that is capable of producing the full spectrum of military items, including nuclear weapons. Nearly 90 per cent of France’s defence requirement is produced indigenously,7 and the French authorities openly boast that their system has “inspired other countries to copy”.8 It is no surprise that the Kelkar Committee, appointed by the MoD to suggest measures to promote self-reliance, in its April 2005 report, Towards Strengthening Self Reliance in Defence Preparedness, suggested an examination of the feasibility of emulating the French system. The present Vivek Rae Committee might also follow suit.
DGA: The Linchpin
At the fulcrum of French defence procurement is the Direction Générale de l’Armement (DGA), one of the three pillars of the Ministry of Defence (Figure 1). The DGA is responsible for a vast array of defence acquisition functions relating to research, development, test evaluation, production and export of defence equipment. The DGA’s predecessor, the Ministerial Delegation for Armament (DMA), was set up on 4 April 1961 by President Charles de Gaulle by merging service-specific armament directorates dealing with land, naval and air equipment and powder manufactures into one entity. The DMA was renamed as DGA in 1977.
Govt has decided to scrap Tariff Authority for Major Ports when it goes for an overhaul of the institutional structure of 11 ports by converting them to authorities from trustee set-up.
http://www.livemint.com/Opinion/KJ9e9jv4kHSi6btxO5EULK/Shippers-turn-cautious-as-end-of-port-rate-regulator-TAMP-ne.html
Cabinet is considering to make zinc coating mandatory in areas like automobiles, construction and also can be deployed in flagship schemes like PM Aawas Yojana.
- Saves loss due to corrosion, boost to GDP
- Consumption of Zinc will increase, India being the third largest producer will get a ready domestic market.
- prolong life of assets
http://m.thehindu.com/business/Industry/centre-to-wipe-out-rust-with-galvanised-steel/article9246419.ece
Freight costs
Though India’s steel production cost is about $320-$340 per tonne compared to $400 in China and the global average of $390, it is uncompetitive in global markets due to freight costs, higher credit costs, industrial power tariffs, high iron ore royalties, import duties and cess on coking coal.
“For example, freight cost from Jamshedpur to Mumbai can be as high as $50/tonne in comparison with $34 a ton from Rotterdam to Mumbai… These factors have made Indian steel uncompetitive as the final cost of steel rises to around $420 per ton,” he said.
http://m.thehindu.com/business/Industry/overhaul-steel-policy-niti-aayogs-saraswat/article9226987.ece
China’s 10-year agreement with Djibouti in 2015 for the setting up of a naval replenishment facility in the northern Obock region is widely seen by Indian experts as proof of the PLA Navy’s strategic ambitions in the IOR.
This does not mean that New Delhi is going to team up with the United States in an effort to contain China. On the contrary, Indian policymakers clearly recognize that naval manoeuvres in the SCS emphasising "freedom of navigation" are a risky proposition. While India would like to see all parties act in accordance with the law, New Delhi will not take sides on the territorial disputes. Even so, the possibility that China might eclipse India in its own "backyard" will continue to drive a security response in New Delhi, even as it seeks to strengthen the Indian naval presence in its near and extended waters.
http://www.idsa.in/idsacomments/why-india-south-china-sea-stand-matters_asingh_190816
This July, Petrapole ICP was launched. This was second ICP between India and Bangladesh after Tripura ICP.
The importance of the Petrapole ICP, apart from boosting bilateral trade, lies in the context of improved connectivity and trade and transit between the north-eastern states and the rest of the country through Bangladesh. Consequent on the above-mentioned transit facilities granted to India by the positively disposed present government in Bangladesh, the ICP at the Petrapole-Benapole border point (Benapole is on the Bangladesh side), which isequipped with all the requisite trade enabling facilities, assumes special significance. Being the relevant local authority, the West Bengal Government will be required to both provide adequate municipal services in the adjoining area and ensure appropriate law and order environment in the North 24 Parganas district through which National Highway-35 passes, leading to the Bongaon-Petrapole ICP. Furthermore, a widening of this National Highway to four-lane width in the Kolkata-Bongaon-Petrapole axis and maintaining it properly are a sine qua non for the further growth of India-Bangladesh trade as well as for meeting the developmental needs of the north-eastern region. Quite significantly, during the June 21 inauguration of the Petrapole ICP, the West Bengal chief minister also spoke about the need for opening a police station at the ICP.
http://www.idsa.in/idsacomments/indo-bangladesh-border-banijya-basati-lakkhi_gsen_020816
http://www.idsa.in/idsacomments/complete-sealing-of-the-india-pakistan-border_gsen_181016
http://www.idsa.in/issuebrief/online-radicalisation-burhan-wani_prao_160716
Wani’s Use of Social Media
Wani’s initial stint in the HM in 2011 was that of a courier/messenger; the differentiator came with his cyber outreach. He created a Twitter handle @Gazi_Burhan2 in October 2012, which he used to upload photographs of atrocities – overtly graphic pictures of violence – allegedly perpetrated by Security forces as well as virulently anti-India and anti-Modi content.2 His calls for joining the ‘Jihad’ were accompanied by qur’anic verses, emotive demands for “Azadi” and exhortations to establish the Nizam-e-Mustafa (God’s government) in Kashmir. In a first action of its kind, he started sending photographs of himself and other militants with faces uncovered, in identifiable locations around Srinagar, which gave disaffected youth a sense of identity and imparted the idea that militancy was a heroic, fairly risk-free, job. His message to join the ‘Jihad’, and not become informers of the Army or Police, gained traction. And in an obvious recruitment drive, he offered remunerations of Rs 35,000 to whomever was willing to join.3 His video and twitter messages highlighted his fight against the Indian establishment. And because of his tweets, Mohammad Ikhlaq, lynched in Dadri on suspicion of consuming beef, and Zahid Ahmed, a Kashmiri trucker who was attacked in Udhampur, have become household names across the Valley.4
In August 2015, Wani uploaded a video on a Facebook account calling for the establishment of a Khilafat in Kashmir. This was a message sent to his target audience to emphasise the Islamic underpinnings of his initiatives. There were no calls for plebiscite or implementation of UN resolutions on Kashmir, etc. Instead, the communication was directed to the Kashmiri youth, urging them to join his outfit, and to the Kashmir police, asking them to shun their fight against the militants. There were no references to the ageing Hurriyat Council or the HM leadership in Pakistan. The video, which was professionally made with Burhan Wani and two other militants in military fatigues, with a Kalashnikov, a pistol and a Quran prominently displayed, went viral in minutes and was widely circulated on WhatsApp in Kashmir, before the Kashmir police took action to block the page. The Cyber Cell of Kashmir police in Srinagar has been valiantly combating the activities of Wani and other militants/sympathisers in the virtual world, but is seriously constrained by lack of qualified staff and meagre resources.