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Brexit! How could it impact India n world??

As all you know in a historic referendum Britain's voted for coming out of EU..
What could be d possible effects on India n world? N future of EU??
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Comments

  • There's been a bloodbath in the indian equity markets so short term impacts are definitely negative.We will get to know the india specific long term effects soon,the pros and cons for UK are obvious,u can look it up!
    History will be kind to me for I intend to write it.
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  • edited June 2016
    It would impact the economy of Britain as noe they would loose access to the European Market. the impact as been reflected in the fall of the rate of Pound. The lowest since 1985. Britain would have to turn towards other economic blocs and hone its bilateral relations with prospective investor countries, as a lot of them might withdraw with Britain no longer being a gateway to the european markets.( This applies to the indian firms who have heavily invested in Britain, we are the third largest source of FDI to Britain) A Norway like arrangement could also be sought with an outsider access to the european markets. Though that would take time and comes with riders. It wouldnt really free Britain from the obligations that drove it to vote out of EU. For eg: Taking in refugees.
    For the Indian govt, it'll provide a breather as the oil prices would fall. The check would provide an advantage to ruling BJP in the election year for some crucial states.
    The stock market is already facing the adverses.
    The whole question of the existence of the EU and the seat of power in Brussels has been questioned now. Germany has a crucial role to play in filling the vacuum , though it wont be easy.
    Rise of the political right in Europe is also a major concern. This would certainly impact the migrants.
    @naveen
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  • It can go anyway. Who ever makes the best use out of the prevailing uncertainty and the instability, will emerge as a winner.
    Good Bye. See you Later.
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  • edited June 2016
    A Lion doesn't concern himself with the opinions of the sheep.
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  • edited June 2016

    He was involved and wanted the market to tank..
    He must've made thousands, not lost 'em..

    Now get a diamond arm @ Jaime_Lannister .. :joy:

    Haha... you make me sound like a financial fraudster...
    Edit: btw in both of yours' informed opinion where is it headed next, the stock market??
    A Lion doesn't concern himself with the opinions of the sheep.
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  • It would impact the economy of Britain as noe they would loose access to the European Market. the impact as been reflected in the fall of the rate of Pound. The lowest since 1985. Britain would have to turn towards other economic blocs and hone its bilateral relations with prospective investor countries, as a lot of them might withdraw with Britain no longer being a gateway to the european markets.( This applies to the indian firms who have heavily invested in Britain, we are the third largest source of FDI to Britain) A Norway like arrangement could also be sought with an outsider access to the european markets. Though that would take time and comes with riders. It wouldnt really free Britain from the obligations that drove it to vote out of EU. For eg: Taking in refugees.
    For the Indian govt, it'll provide a breather as the oil prices would fall. The check would provide an advantage to ruling BJP in the election year for some crucial states.
    The stock market is already facing the adverses.
    The whole question of the existence of the EU and the seat of power in Brussels has been questioned now. Germany has a crucial role to play in filling the vacuum , though it wont be easy.
    Rise of the political right in Europe is also a major concern. This would certainly impact the migrants.
    @naveen

    it is being said that Brexit would lead to lower commodity prices including oil prices. couldnt understand the rationale behind this assertion. if anyone could make this clear???


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  • it is being said that Brexit would lead to lower commodity prices including oil prices. couldnt understand the rationale behind this assertion. if anyone could make this clear???
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  • Mistral said:

    It would impact the economy of Britain as noe they would loose access to the European Market. the impact as been reflected in the fall of the rate of Pound. The lowest since 1985. Britain would have to turn towards other economic blocs and hone its bilateral relations with prospective investor countries, as a lot of them might withdraw with Britain no longer being a gateway to the european markets.( This applies to the indian firms who have heavily invested in Britain, we are the third largest source of FDI to Britain) A Norway like arrangement could also be sought with an outsider access to the european markets. Though that would take time and comes with riders. It wouldnt really free Britain from the obligations that drove it to vote out of EU. For eg: Taking in refugees.
    For the Indian govt, it'll provide a breather as the oil prices would fall. The check would provide an advantage to ruling BJP in the election year for some crucial states.
    The stock market is already facing the adverses.
    The whole question of the existence of the EU and the seat of power in Brussels has been questioned now. Germany has a crucial role to play in filling the vacuum , though it wont be easy.
    Rise of the political right in Europe is also a major concern. This would certainly impact the migrants.
    @naveen

    it is being said that Brexit would lead to lower commodity prices including oil prices. couldnt understand the rationale behind this assertion. if anyone could make this clear???


    If the global investment sentiment declines, and there is fall in demand and thus growth; then there might be a fall in the commodity prices.
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  • # Immigration laws of JUKE may get impacted..so Indians diplomats have to brace up for securitising Indian interests post brexit !!

    # Direct engagement with JU KE darling may fetch better favourable outcomes for Indian diplomacy and interests as earlier entire EU interests were coupled together !! (Ex may be ab UK hmare ALPHONSO khreed le 250 sal ki purani rishtedaari ko dhyan m rkhte huye !!)


    # Oil prices may get impacted towards south !!

    # In short term EU breakup may hv transient ripples in world economy so Sensex Jutiyapa can happen !! Upr se sir Governor bhi jaa rhe h to investors ka JIYA Dhadak Dhadak..!!!



    Lastly but Not Leastly -

    ## Kejriwal TAU may get inspiration for direct democracy !! :D
    Being IAS... 4 U Onlyyy... :-)
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  • edited June 2016
    .
    Being IAS... 4 U Onlyyy... :-)
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  • Brexit dooms the European Union

    The European Union has begun to crumble. The Syrian civil war and the unfortunate consequences of intervening in Libya have led to one of the world’s largest forced migrations. This has led to an unprecedented xenophobia and a renewal of nationalism putting strains on the political union. Even within western Europe and the UK the migration of large numbers from “new” European countries like Romania has led to a racial backlash and we see the consequences of this in the UK referendum.

    While 76% of Britons aged between 18-24 voted to remain in Europe, as did 56% of the 25-49 years cohort, the more conservative older sections overwhelmingly voted to exit. The racist overtones of the political and social discourse in Germany, France, Italy and other nations are now apparent. Without seamless internal travel, a basic building block of the EU is taken away. This process has begun.

    The historical roots of the European Union go back to the end of World War II when the many in the war-ravaged continent began yearning for a future free from conflict. But no sooner WWII ended Europe again found itself on the abyss of war. The Cold War divided Europe in a bitter contest between two different and adversarial systems. As Winston Churchill put it: "From Stettin in the Baltic to Trieste in the Adriatic, an iron curtain has descended across the Continent." Instead of the peace that it yearned for, nuclear Armageddon now threatened it.

    However, the swift post-war economic revival of the three great western European powers, Britain, France and Germany, and the realization that they faced a new challenge to the democratic way of life due to the sudden expansion of the communist universe after WWII, united Western Europe in action and in deed. The dangerous geo-political fault-line only spurred the endeavor to unite Europe as one nation so that competing nationalisms and ambitions do not engulf it in war again.

    In 1957 the western European countries formed the European Economic Community. Britain’s efforts to join were rebuffed several times by Charles de Gaulle who saw it as little more than an American Trojan horse. In 1970 his successor Georges Pompidou relented and the UK was finally allowed in. Britain’s entry paved the path towards the grand unification contemplated by the French economist and diplomat, Jean Monnet, and the European Union was formalized by the Single Europe Act of 1987 was signed. It’s not without irony that it is the UK, which has now struck the major blow against the European Union.

    The rejection of communism in eastern Europe followed by the German reunification in October 1990, and the dismemberment of the Soviet Union in 1991 seemed to herald the reinstatement of Europe as the leader of the world, as it was in the 1800’s till the rise of the USA in the 1900’s. The Amsterdam Treaty of 1999 meant a common citizenship and charter of individual rights and was an attempt to build a continental and democratic nation with a common parliament, a common vision of freedom, security and justice, and a common foreign and security policy (CFSP). Europe was now to be a seamless union of many great economic and political aspirations. This new union of ‘old’ and ‘new’ Europe was consummated with the arrival of Euro notes and coins on January 1, 2002.

    In terms of numbers the European Union looked impressive indeed. Its GDP was bigger than the USA’s in 2002. But it had begun to slow down due to the absence of centralized financial regulation. Europe’s GDP in 2016 was $18.5 trillion against the USA’s $19.96 trillion. Britain’s exit now takes away $3.15 trillion, just as the EU was beginning to further slow down due to rapid aging. Britain was growing at about 2.4% while the other main European powers, Germany ($4.06 trillion and growing at 1.8%; and France $3.02 trillion and growing at 1.55%).

    More than that London is the dynamic world financial centre, even more so than New York. It is also at the centre of a English speaking worldwide web of tax evasion and concealment stretching from the Bahamas, British Virgin Islands, Cayman Islands, to Jersey, Guernsey and the Isle of Wight. Panama and Switzerland have the notoriety, but it is London than ‘chunnels’ money of developing country elites into the European economy. Its not without reason that Indian businessmen also refer to fiscally lax London as their gateway to Europe.

    Naturally Indians invest more in the UK than in the rest of Europe combined, emerging as the UK's third largest FDI investor. Access to European markets is the key driver for Indian companies investing in the UK. This might now perforce be increasingly diverted to Europe.

    This apart, the MEA’s country brief of says Britain is also the third largest investor in India after Mauritius and Singapore, with a cumulative inward flow of $22.56 billion between April 2000 and September 2015. A good part of this is round tripping money. Thus, it seems that Britain is also the gateway to India. This may not change.

    There are over 800 Indian companies in the UK, more than the combined number in the rest of Europe. According to the India Tracker 2016 commissioned by the Confederation of Indian Industry (CII), Indian companies generate 110,000 jobs in the UK, while a major part of their business was in Europe. There is no reason why this business should suffer given the WTO regime in place. But it is the free flow of money to Europe that might be impeded? Will the residual EU be as tolerant to whitewashed money flows?

    The total turnover of the fastest growing Indian companies in the U.K especially in the fast growth sectors of technology, telecom, pharmaceuticals and financial services, rose by 18 per cent in 2016 — from £22 billion in 2015 to £26 billion this year, according to the Tracker. Telecom and technology companies Bharti Airtel and HCL Technologies top the list of Indian companies, registering phenomenal growths of 886 per cent and 728 per cent respectively. But in turnover terms, the Tata Group still dominates. Despite the downturn in the automobile industry, Jaguar Land Rover’s business is still a success story.

    Britain ranks 12th in terms of India's bilateral trade with individual countries. It is also among just seven of 25 top countries with which India enjoys a trade surplus. As per data with the Commerce Ministry, India's bilateral trade with Britain was worth $14.02 billion in 2015-16, out of which $8.83 billion was in exports and $5.19 was in imports. The trade balance thus was a positive $3,64 billion. If Britain’s economy slows down as a consequence of Brexit, as many expect it to, this trade surplus may also vanish. But nevertheless to most Indians, particularly the well heeled ones, the will always be a Britain.

    Mohan Guruswamy
    Email: mohanguru@gmail.com
    24 June 16
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  • i think the whole BREXIT thing is overblown.It doesnt really matter what people think.The super elite the government babu's, billion dollar MNC cartels, the holy trinity of oil,defence and jew lobby and the regular bloodsucking bastards know they need EU market more than they need sovereignty. I think think they will strike a deal with the EU after the dust settles like those creepy Norwegian fellows(UK is already a member of EEA, i think) or swiss model of hundreds of trade deals with EU.Financial uncertainty aka moolah in wall street and other streets.The only good thing that can happen out of all this is perhaps a strong trade deal with INDIA and a hopeful domino effect (like scotland, greece, belgium,italy) leading to a beautiful disintegration of Europe and and their descent into madness,chaos and uncertainty( enough of the PAX EUROPAEA bullshit...) literally paving way for China and maybe,if we play our cards right, India.so it aint that bad actually.
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  • now just last thing remaining of trump becoming u.s. prez after this brexit episode...
    well germany loves migrants and its repercussions are visible in cologne and theatre lone wolf attacks..
    thanks britons for choosing your sovereignty over idiocracy and cultural onslaught...
    already assam is witnessing migrant love from 8% peaceful community to 34 %
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