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[CSE] Analysis of 64th AR of UPSC : Right facts, Predictions

edited February 2015 in Miscellaneous
We have had several debates regarding the facts and figures of the CSE.

Download your full copy of 64th AR (2013-14) of the UPSC here - http://www.upsc.gov.in/general/rti/slno1.htm#PageTop

Let's analyse the data from page 109, Appendix - 14 : "Civil Services (Main) Examination, 2012: Profile of Candidates" onwards.

Attached is a copy of the appendix, in case you prefer that.
pdf
pdf
UPSC AR-14 (English) A-14.pdf
238K
Prelims : 2/5; Mains : 0/2; Interview : 0; Remainder : 1+1 (Tired but not; Retired) / Medical Science / Kolkata / Nihilist extraordinaire | Thanks a lot...

Comments

  • edited February 2015
    Facts about Civil Services Examination, 2012: (sequentially, as read from the pdf)

    1. 50.7 percent of the candidates applied but did not turn up for the examination - CSP

    2. Out of 13,092 candidates, 12,190 (93.1%) had appeared in the written part of Civil Services (Main) Examination, 2012

    3. Table - 2 : M:F ratios at various stages (F increases towards the end)

    4. Table - 3: Year-wise Number of Vacancies (rising)

    5. Table - 4 : CSM, 2012-13 - 2669/12190 (22% hit) interviewed; 998/2669 (37.4% hit) recommended [8% recommended out of CSM pool) for 1091 posts.

    So, recommended : vacancy ratio = 91.5%

    6. Interviewed : Mains appeared has remained around 1 : 4.5-4.7 from 2008-2012 at least.

    - CSM success rate is about 22% (Interview call rate = 1 in 4.5)

    7. Recommended : Interview call has remained around 1 : 2.4-2.6 from 2008-2012 at least.

    - CS interview success rate is around 40% (1 in 4)

    8. Recommended : Mains appeared has remained around 1 : 10.8-12.2 from 2008-2012 at least. CS interview success rate is around 8.7% (1 in 11.5)

    9. CSM, 2013-14 - 1122/14176 recommended [8% hit out of CSM pool]

    10. Success rate of candidates having higher degrees was higher than that of those with bachelor degrees. But graduate : PG ratio in final list is 3:2

    11. Public Administration was the most preferred subject among the optional subjects chosen by the candidates, followed by Geography and Sociology.

    12. Amongst the subjects opted by 100 or more candidates, the highest percentage of successful candidates had opted for Medical Science (23.4 percent) followed by Economics (19.0 percent) and Law (17.1 percent)

    13. As far as academic backgrounds of the recommended candidates are concerned :

    - 40.1% - Humanities
    - 37.4% - Engineering
    - 14.5% - Medical Science (all types)
    - 8.0% - Sciences respectively.

    14. However, 89.9% of optional subjects opted by the recommended candidates were related to Humanities (including literature of languages),

    ... followed by 5.9%, 3.4% and 0.8% related to Science, Medical Sciences and Engineering respectively. This shows that most of the candidates have made a cross domain shift from their original stream (i.e., Engineering, Science and Medical Science) to humanities.

    (See page 114, Diagram 2)

    15. Table 6s : Community, Age and Gender-wise Distribution of Candidates (See page 116, Diagram 3)

    16. Diagram : 5 Community‐wise and Age-wise Distribution of Candidates Recommended for I.A.S./I.F.S.

    17. Table-8 : Community and Gender-wise Success Rate of Candidates

    18. Table 9-C: Number of Attempts by the Recommended Candidates (2nd and 3rd shot has best chances, then 1st shot)
    Prelims : 2/5; Mains : 0/2; Interview : 0; Remainder : 1+1 (Tired but not; Retired) / Medical Science / Kolkata / Nihilist extraordinaire | Thanks a lot...
  • Recommended : Interview call has
    remained around 1 : 2.4-2.6 from 2008-2012 at
    least. This is very low it should be atleast 1:3 as it is done in other exams.
    Why only 998 candidates recommended against 1091 vacancies.what happened to other 93 post were they cancelled.can you throw light on this.
    2014-1st attempt,mains--pol science
  • edited February 2015
    This is directly out of the AR. See for yourself. The CSE 2014 notification states -

    "The number of candidates to
    be summoned for interview will be about
    twice the number of vacancies
    to be
    filled."

    This is even lower than this data.

    Also, the same notification states -

    "The number of candidates
    to be admitted to the Main Examination
    will be about twelve to thirteen times the
    total approximate number of vacancies
    to
    be filled in the year through this examina-
    tion."

    This is more than the observed 10.8-12.2 times.

    I guess, we can assume that the interview call would be for around 2.5x
    Prelims : 2/5; Mains : 0/2; Interview : 0; Remainder : 1+1 (Tired but not; Retired) / Medical Science / Kolkata / Nihilist extraordinaire | Thanks a lot...
  • People here are experts at DI. Let's hear a few interpretations!
    Prelims : 2/5; Mains : 0/2; Interview : 0; Remainder : 1+1 (Tired but not; Retired) / Medical Science / Kolkata / Nihilist extraordinaire | Thanks a lot...
  • edited February 2015
    Some data and predictions for CSE 2014.

    Number of vacancies = 1,364
    Number of people writing mains = 16,933

    About only 93% of CSM eligible aspirants give the exam.
    So the effective competition = 15,748

    Recommended : vacancy ratio = 91.5%.
    So, predicted interview calls = 1,364 * .915 * 2.5 = 3120

    That works out to a Interviewed : Mains appeared = 3120/15748 = (1 : 5) - too high. Normally, this is about 1 : 4.5. That means more mains candidates would have to be eliminated (15748 - 14040 = 1708 extra candidates).

    So, either the cut-off would be raised (actual cut-off may rise or fall, but this would try to push it up), or interview calls would have to go up (max on record is 1 : 2.6). If the interview call is raised to 3245 (1 : 2.6,) then also over 1500 extra candidates remain who would have to be eliminated.

    So, conclusions for CSE 2014 :

    Number of allotments - 1250 (approx)

    Interview calls - 3120 to 3245 / average 3182 (approx)

    CSM success rate - 20% (1 : 5) - tougher than previous years.

    Interview success rate - about 40% (as above)
    Recommended : Mains appeared strike rate - 8% (approx - as before)

    Alternatively, due to greater number of available candidates, UPSC may fill in a higher percentage of vacancies (than 91-92%). This can boost interview calls and other ratios. (HOPING)

    [* conditions / other statistical blabber apply; information is purely speculative.

    reserve list ignored. ]
    Prelims : 2/5; Mains : 0/2; Interview : 0; Remainder : 1+1 (Tired but not; Retired) / Medical Science / Kolkata / Nihilist extraordinaire | Thanks a lot...
  • University No of candidates recommended
    IITs. 108
    DU 96
    JNU 44
    ANNA 39
    RAJ 35
    IIMs 34
    PUNE 30
    .
    .
    AIIMS 8 (out of 8 interviewed)
    @ArindamSarkar
    Seems medicos have greater debating abilities..
  • @ArindamSarkar...good going man
    Bhai can u explain why they recommended about 92% of vacancies ?
    "You can't stop the waves, but you can learn to surf"
  • @ arindam......other seats get eventually filled through " reserve list" ,which is maintained.There is no waiting list but reserve list is there.
  • @navingreen - We deal with convoluted questions from patients all the time. Interview is much more cordial. :))

    @MD47 - They don't find cent per cent of the people 'suitable enough' to fill these posts. + The explanation above.

    @confusedaspirant - Thanks for clarifying that. This is my first mains. :)
    Prelims : 2/5; Mains : 0/2; Interview : 0; Remainder : 1+1 (Tired but not; Retired) / Medical Science / Kolkata / Nihilist extraordinaire | Thanks a lot...
  • edited February 2015
    - Science optional : Humanities optional ratio amongst recommended aspirants is about 2:3. Also, ~90% of the aspirants opt for humanities as their optional. Is this why people complain about 'butchering of humanities' (as optional)?

    - Women are very low in numbers here. But their strike rates are much greater than the guys. Kudos! :)

    - In CSE 2012, percentage of general merit aspirants grew at each selection stage to go from 42% in CSP to 46% amongst recommended.
    Prelims : 2/5; Mains : 0/2; Interview : 0; Remainder : 1+1 (Tired but not; Retired) / Medical Science / Kolkata / Nihilist extraordinaire | Thanks a lot...
  • Commerce & management grouped under science or humanities?
  • ^^ Not sure. See the appendix attached to the first post.
    Prelims : 2/5; Mains : 0/2; Interview : 0; Remainder : 1+1 (Tired but not; Retired) / Medical Science / Kolkata / Nihilist extraordinaire | Thanks a lot...
  • - Science optional : Humanities optional ratio amongst recommended aspirants is about 2:3. Is this why people complain about 'butchering of humanities?'

    - Women are very low in numbers here. But their strike rates are much greater than the guys. Kudos! :)

    - In CSE 2012, percentage of general merit aspirants grew at each selection stage to go from 42% in CSP to 46% amongst recommended.

    -butchering term is a hypocrisy.
    -it shows women who appear for the exam are damn serious ones...
    back to Square 1
  • The data missing about this claim of butchering is the strike rates for aspirants opting for their own graduation subjects. I didn't find it in the AR.

    Success rate of aspirants opting for their own graduation subject would be the benchmark to compare. Shifters are expected generally to score below 'natives.'
    Prelims : 2/5; Mains : 0/2; Interview : 0; Remainder : 1+1 (Tired but not; Retired) / Medical Science / Kolkata / Nihilist extraordinaire | Thanks a lot...
  • edited February 2015
    The data missing about this claim of butchering is the strike rates for aspirants opting for their own graduation subjects. I didn't find it in the AR.

    Success rate of aspirants opting for their own graduation subject would be the benchmark to compare. Shifters are expected generally to score below 'natives.'
    not necessary...afaik from this forum and khelo india blog.....last time top scorer in history and pol sc. optional were engineers
    back to Square 1

  • -butchering term is a hypocrisy.
    -it shows women who appear for the exam are damn serious ones...
    why so sir ji??
    When the going gets tough...
    ... squeal like a pig.
  • edited February 2015

    -butchering term is a hypocrisy.
    -it shows women who appear for the exam are damn serious ones...
    why so sir ji??
    getting marks in humanities is always difficult.. toppers in arts colleges usually have 65-70% marks in graduation...unlike in engineering colleges where 90+ (or 9+ cgpa) are common ...so its normal that scoring in humanities subjects is always difficult by default....since the same teachers will be evaluating the papers...
    Imagine few marks extra in humanities subjects will lead to complete wipe out of other Science optionals...
    Humanities subjects have inherent advantage in GS plus the syllabus are quite smaller keeping the science optionals at disadvantage...
    Humanities optional takers and qualifiers are more compared to Science optional takers and qualifiers. So where is butchering vis-a-vis science optionals.
    back to Square 1
  • The data missing about this claim of butchering is the strike rates for aspirants opting for their own graduation subjects. I didn't find it in the AR.

    Success rate of aspirants opting for their own graduation subject would be the benchmark to compare. Shifters are expected generally to score below 'natives.'
    not necessary...afaik from this forum and khelo india blog.....last time top scorer in history and pol sc. optional were engineers
    Many humanities topper are not writing mains.my class topper was also had 3rd highest marks in whole of delhi university but failed in prelims itself.
    2014-1st attempt,mains--pol science
  • edited February 2015
    The data missing about this claim of butchering is the strike rates for aspirants opting for their own graduation subjects. I didn't find it in the AR.

    Success rate of aspirants opting for their own graduation subject would be the benchmark to compare. Shifters are expected generally to score below 'natives.'
    not necessary...afaik from this forum and khelo india blog.....last time top scorer in history and pol sc. optional were engineers
    Oh. I didn't know that. Then why are people complaining about butchering?

    The data shows that the success rate is much greater for science optionals. Is that a valid comparison? If 90% of the aspirants opt for humanities, and 10% opt for sciences, we would have much more competition and many more failures in humanities as compared to sciences.

    Since the competition in humanities is so much greater, the scaled scores would tend to be on the lower side for those who don't make it through.

    So this butchering might just be a matter of perception and not based on concrete grounds.

    I think there is a fallacy in my statement in this post. Can't seem to pinpoint it. Anybody?
    Prelims : 2/5; Mains : 0/2; Interview : 0; Remainder : 1+1 (Tired but not; Retired) / Medical Science / Kolkata / Nihilist extraordinaire | Thanks a lot...

  • -butchering term is a hypocrisy.
    -it shows women who appear for the exam are damn serious ones...
    why so sir ji??
    getting marks in humanities is always difficult.. toppers in arts colleges usually have 65-70% marks in graduation...unlike in engineering colleges where 90+ (or 9+ cgpa) are common ...so its normal that scoring in humanities subjects is always difficult by default....since the same teachers will be evaluating the papers...
    Imagine few marks extra in humanities subjects will lead to complete wipe out of other Science optionals...
    Humanities subjects have inherent advantage in GS plus the syllabus are quite smaller keeping the science optionals at disadvantage...
    Humanities optional takers and qualifiers are more compared to Science optional takers and qualifiers. So where is butchering vis-a-vis science optionals.
    guilty as charged, on all counts. send humanity to the gallows :D
    When the going gets tough...
    ... squeal like a pig.

  • -butchering term is a hypocrisy.
    -it shows women who appear for the exam are damn serious ones...
    why so sir ji??
    getting marks in humanities is always difficult.. toppers in arts colleges usually have 65-70% marks in graduation...unlike in engineering colleges where 90+ (or 9+ cgpa) are common ...so its normal that scoring in humanities subjects is always difficult by default....since the same teachers will be evaluating the papers...
    Imagine few marks extra in humanities subjects will lead to complete wipe out of other Science optionals...
    Humanities subjects have inherent advantage in GS plus the syllabus are quite smaller keeping the science optionals at disadvantage...
    Humanities optional takers and qualifiers are more compared to Science optional takers and qualifiers. So where is butchering vis-a-vis science optionals.
    There is no butchering per se.
    Marks are also awarded in humanities these days ppl are getting as high as 80percent in du.this was not case during my time.
    Also if you write good quality ans then you can score upto 50percent marks in humanities optional as well.thor for eg last year got 100 when he attempt question worth 210 marks.so good marks is possible.also most of the optionals score were within a range of 30-35 marks whether they were science or humanities.theoritical highest in pol sci was 275 but these marks belonged to two different ppl unlike ga who scored highest marks in both ppr of economics.
    2014-1st attempt,mains--pol science
  • ^^ And technically speaking, the highest scoring optinals are all literature which fall within the domain of humanities.
    Prelims : 2/5; Mains : 0/2; Interview : 0; Remainder : 1+1 (Tired but not; Retired) / Medical Science / Kolkata / Nihilist extraordinaire | Thanks a lot...
  • terming butchering as hypocrisy is the most hypocritical thing.. Personal biases and emotional needs taking over logic and reason.. does not sound good for a techie..
    Andhera chatega! suraj niklega! kamal khilega!
  • terming butchering as hypocrisy is the most hypocritical thing.. Personal biases and emotional needs taking over logic and reason.. does not sound good for a techie..
    Humanities score always low. 1-2 may be high rest low.
    I am a real ghost (after dead type). I am being honest. Boooooo......
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