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Analysis on Tax to GDP Question asked in Prelims CSP 2017. [With proof]

Final verdict on TAX/GDP question

None of us checked the data on Fiscal deficit and we have a surprise in the store.

Hold your breath, The answer to this most probably(According to the proof below), is

C. Both 1 and 2 (If state + central contribution) is considered
or
B. Only 2 (If Only central contribution) is considered.


Personally, according to me, UPSC has asked State + central contribution and therefore answer is clearly (C).

I know, its shocking to say the least, but have a look the evidence below and you can see for yourself.

Consider the following statements :
1. Tax revenue as a percent of GDP of India has steadily increased in the last decade.
2. Fiscal deficit as a percent of GDP of India has steadily increased in the last decade.
Which of the statements given above is/are correct ?
(a) 1 only?
(b) 2 only
(c) Both 1 and 2
(d) Neither 1 nor 2

What is the Meaning of last decade?
Case 1 : 2001 to 2010
Case 2 : 2006 to 2016

Last decade in UPSC parlance is last ten years from the the year in which the question is asked. How do i know this? From the question below. The answer the question below is (Only 2). And UPSC has considered 2004 to 2014 as last decade, therefore statement 1 (Real gdp growth) is false. If it has considered 2001 to 2010, then statement 1 would also be correct. Check the graphs attached.

----------------------------------------------------

With reference to Indian economy,consider the following statements : (Asked in 2015)
1. The rate of growth of Real Gross Domestic Product has steadily increased in the last decade.
2. The Gross Domestic Product at market prices (in rupees) has steadily increased in the last decade.
Which of the statements given above
is/arc correct?
(a) I only
(b) 2 only - Correct option according to UPSC key.
(c) Both 1 and 2
(d) Neither I nor 2


Graphs for 2015 question on GDP,

http://planningcommission.nic.in/data/datatable/data_2312/DatabookDec2014 10.pdf

[steadily decreasing] UPSC considered 2004 to 2014 as last decade to make statement 1 false according to this graph

[steadily increasing]UPSC dint consider 2001 to 2010 as last decade therefore statement 1 could not be true.


Statement 2 is true for all cases according to the data here, it has increased not just steadily but also continuously since 2000.
http://planningcommission.nic.in/data/datatable/data_2312/DatabookDec2014 2.pdf

----------------------------------------------------------

Proof for our question of 2017

Data is collected from this pdf,
http://dea.gov.in/sites/default/files/IPFS English 2015-16.pdf

Graphs for (State + Centre contribution) and 2006 to 2016 as last decade
steadily increasing

steadily increasing


Graphs for (Only centre contribution) and 2006 to 2016 as last decade
steadily "Decreasing"

steadily "increasing"


----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Other graphs for your interest

Graphs for (State + centre) and 2001 to 2010
If UPSC considers this, then answer is Only 1 (A). But least likely to happen, because of the evidence above.



Graphs for (Centre only) and 2001 to 2010
Again, If UPSC considers this, then answer is Only 1 (A). But least likely to happen.

Saw the passion in my vulnerabilities? Now see the strength in my resolution.
·
«13

Comments

  • I don't understand why the States angle came into picture at all. If UPSC wanted it, they would not have asked "GDP of India". In economic parlance, States are referred with GSDP. The answer is clearly 1 only.
    ·
  • Answer is D
    ·
  • Jyada dimaag na lagao...Shankar aur vision key dekh lo
    ·
  • Last decade ka matlab Tha 2006 se 2016
    ·
  • @Krishnan Pls put your conversation with faculty here
    ·
  • edited July 17
    @Einstein10 People dont study before exam and after that do seminal research :D :D :D Answer is D. and fiscal deficit asked is that of centre and not state. Your assumption is laughable.
    ·
  • @Einstein10 People dont study before exam and after that do seminal research :D :D :D Answer is D. and fiscal deficit asked is that of centre and not state. Your assumption is laughable.

    Do you know what's laughable?
    When you make such irresponsible comments even after posting every graph with explanation and the credible link from which the data was picked.

    "I don't know if you are blind,
    I have clearly stated if upsc considers only central contributions , then answer is B. Only 2".

    Look at the data and graph before talking like an illiterate.

    I have even explained what is the meaning of last decade in UPSC parlance and graphs 5 and 6 clearly shows why it is "only 2" if like you say, upsc considers only central contribution.

    And lastly, this was a super tough question. I, you and everyone else , nobody knew the exact answer in exam and we all guessed it by some logic.

    Now I just took out the data and plotted the graph so that people can understand what was asked in in question. If you have a problem with this, then wash your face, you are dreaming.
    Saw the passion in my vulnerabilities? Now see the strength in my resolution.
    ·
  • Krishnan said:

    I don't understand why the States angle came into picture at all. If UPSC wanted it, they would not have asked "GDP of India". In economic parlance, States are referred with GSDP. The answer is clearly 1 only.

    The states angle came into the picture because of the communication with bibek debroy sir. He explained why states should also be considered. And that's why it's considered in the analysis.

    Assuming your argument, that it is only central contribution,
    The answer is not (only 1) but, clearly the answer is only 2(B).

    See the graphs of only central contribution of 2006 to 16. Clearly tax to GDP is steadily decreasing and fd/GDP is steadily increasing. Therefore answer is only 2.

    Why 2006 to 2016 and not 2001 to 2010? I have clearly explained with example.

    I request you to read the entire write up again with due diligence before coming up with further arguments.
    Saw the passion in my vulnerabilities? Now see the strength in my resolution.
    ·
  • edited July 17
    I myself have marked only 1 in exam. And I am convinced that I am wrong.

    The problem with people is that, they don't want to see what is even written in the analysis, they just want to blurt out their bias to make their answer correct even at the cost of sounding like an idiot.

    For God's sake nobody is asking to believe the answers I have posted above.

    You just had to go through the graphs once. That's it, that was only intention. To put up a perspective on what could be the answer with scientific explanation.

    Every possibility has been clearly explained.

    Anyways you can revisit this thread after a year and ridicule me if I would be wrong.

    Till then, peace out.
    Saw the passion in my vulnerabilities? Now see the strength in my resolution.
    ·
  • doston..tax-gdp ka 2009-10 se abhi tak ka crystal clear data ..yahan se dekhen... usse pehle ka to widely available hai hi :D

    http://eaindustry.nic.in/key_economic_indicators/Key_Economic_Indicators.pdf
    gross tax revenuew as percent of gdp.png
    739 x 512 - 89K
    gross tax revenue as percent of gdp - 2.png
    714 x 509 - 85K
    ·
  • what i dont understand is...tax gdp has increased in last decade...its a fact...

    the increase is steady ,not unidirectional increase only,but overall increasing...

    if someone asks...india's exports have steadily increased since 1991...

    what will be the answer?

    it has increased for most years,but not every year,so will you say its not a steady increase...

    does steady always have to unidirectional increase,every quarter,half year and yearly?


    plz tell me..
    thanks
    the only hurdle between you and success is lack of genuine belief
    ·
  • here's example taken from http://dahd.nic.in/sites/default/files/BAH_&_FS_Book.pdf illustrating what steady increasing graph is....
    image.png
    1002 x 578 - 96K
    image 2.png
    842 x 583 - 57K
    image.png 95.7K
    image 2.png 57.1K
    ·
  • what i dont understand is...tax gdp has increased in last decade...its a fact...

    the increase is steady ,not unidirectional increase only,but overall increasing...

    if someone asks...india's exports have steadily increased since 1991...

    what will be the answer?

    it has increased for most years,but not every year,so will you say its not a steady increase...

    does steady always have to unidirectional increase,every quarter,half year and yearly?


    plz tell me..
    thanks

    How.. it was 11.38% in 2006-07 and 11.3 % in 2016-17..... even by slope criteria it can be said to be almost constant.... noway steadily increasing
    Screenshot_20170717-195735.png
    1080 x 1920 - 288K
    ·
  • I myself have marked only 1 in exam. And I am convinced that I am wrong.

    The problem with people is that, they don't want to see what is even written in the analysis, they just want to blurt out their bias to make their answer correct even at the cost of sounding like an idiot.

    For God's sake nobody is asking to believe the answers I have posted above.

    You just had to go through the graphs once. That's it, that was only intention. To put up a perspective on what could be the answer with scientific explanation.

    Every possibility has been clearly explained.

    Anyways you can revisit this thread after a year and ridicule me if I would be wrong.

    Till then, peace out.

    haha. What an idiot of highest order. You need to go back to high school and do your elementary reading once again. Answer is D :D :D :D

    ·
  • As is proved from above stated key economic indicators ..though tax-gdp has been inceasing....we see 3 dips as percentage of GDP from previous years.....and as illustrated through examples of steady increasing graph.....it means increase without dips. Hence, answer for Tax-GDP is D . Bad luck for All ho marked A including me. Jus having realistic hopes :|
    ·
  • what i dont understand is...tax gdp has increased in last decade...its a fact...

    the increase is steady ,not unidirectional increase only,but overall increasing...

    if someone asks...india's exports have steadily increased since 1991...

    what will be the answer?

    it has increased for most years,but not every year,so will you say its not a steady increase...

    does steady always have to unidirectional increase,every quarter,half year and yearly?


    plz tell me..
    thanks

    How.. it was 11.38% in 2006-07 and 11.3 % in 2016-17..... even by slope criteria it can be said to be almost constant.... noway steadily increasing
    Steadily increasing allows little fluctuations.Steadily increasing is different from continuously increasing
    ·
  • As is proved from above stated key economic indicators ..though tax-gdp has been inceasing....we see 3 dips as percentage of GDP from previous years.....and as illustrated through examples of steady increasing graph.....it means increase without dips. Hence, answer for Tax-GDP is D . Bad luck for All ho marked A including me. Jus having realistic hopes :|

    Continuously increasing means increasing without dip
    ·
  • This is an example of steadily increasing
    IMG_0098.PNG
    750 x 1334 - 462K
    IMG_0098.PNG 461.7K
    ·
  • As is proved from above stated key economic indicators ..though tax-gdp has been inceasing....we see 3 dips as percentage of GDP from previous years.....and as illustrated through examples of steady increasing graph.....it means increase without dips. Hence, answer for Tax-GDP is D . Bad luck for All ho marked A including me. Jus having realistic hopes :|

    Continuously increasing means increasing without dip
    well govt doesn;t not consider this definition as illustrated above, as is found in one of its document.
    moreover this basic website about different graphs also does not support your definition
    https://www.ecenglish.com/learnenglish/lessons/describing-graphs
    ·
  • This is for tax-GDP I think
    IMG_0099.PNG
    750 x 1334 - 197K
    IMG_0099.PNG 197.4K
    ·
  • This is for tax-GDP I think

    this method is wrong....clear now. read above
    ·
  • what i dont understand is...tax gdp has increased in last decade...its a fact...

    the increase is steady ,not unidirectional increase only,but overall increasing...

    if someone asks...india's exports have steadily increased since 1991...

    what will be the answer?

    it has increased for most years,but not every year,so will you say its not a steady increase...

    does steady always have to unidirectional increase,every quarter,half year and yearly?


    plz tell me..
    thanks

    How.. it was 11.38% in 2006-07 and 11.3 % in 2016-17..... even by slope criteria it can be said to be almost constant.... noway steadily increasing
    Steadily increasing allows little fluctuations.Steadily increasing is different from continuously increasing
    Ppl come up with their own definitions for terms that make their answer correct.

    Steady increase is a synonym for continuous increase. Google it.
    Synonym => They mean the exact same thing.

    There are only 2 things of concern:

    Increasing = next value maybe same or greater than previous value. Depends on end points.

    Monotonically/ Steady/ Continuous increasing = next value must be greater than previous value.


    Any maths/ eco/ stats guy has learnt this as basics.
    ·
  • what i dont understand is...tax gdp has increased in last decade...its a fact...

    the increase is steady ,not unidirectional increase only,but overall increasing...

    if someone asks...india's exports have steadily increased since 1991...

    what will be the answer?

    it has increased for most years,but not every year,so will you say its not a steady increase...

    does steady always have to unidirectional increase,every quarter,half year and yearly?


    plz tell me..
    thanks

    How.. it was 11.38% in 2006-07 and 11.3 % in 2016-17..... even by slope criteria it can be said to be almost constant.... noway steadily increasing
    Steadily increasing allows little fluctuations.Steadily increasing is different from continuously increasing
    Data for 10 years

    2006-07- 11.34
    2007-08- 12.54
    2008-09- 10.1
    2009-10- 9.6
    2010-11- 10.2
    2011-12- 10.2
    2012-13- 10.4
    2013-14- 10.1
    2014-15- 10.0
    2015-16- 10.6

    Tabulation of graph posted above.... now tell me how it is steadily increasing.... it is constant or flictuating..

    Even declining by slope criteria



    ·
  • edited July 17
    Ppl centre and state ke data me fark hai bhai...it can be only 1 baki upsc will tell..but hope sabhi rakho yaar...ye no hope ..you dont know..type mat bolo yaar..kuch bhi sahi ho sakta hai
    ·
  • ...
    w_oped.jpg
    1036 x 1110 - 279K
    w_oped.jpg 278.8K
    ·
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